[Bldg-sim] Climate change-modified simulation weather files

Joe Huang yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com
Mon Feb 8 17:03:17 PST 2021


Matthias,  anybody else interested,

I've received numerous e-mails also asking for a reference on the methodology, so I 
thought I'd reply publicly to your question, in case there are other Bldg-Sim readers with 
the same question.

I do not take credit at all for using frequency analysis to generate synthetic weather 
data, although I've known of the technique since my first days at LBNL (1981) listening to 
a colleague trying to do just that.  The credit for using frequency analysis to create 
future year weather files should go to my colleague Parag Rastogi, who developed this 
method as a major part of his Ph.D. thesis (2016) at the Ecole Polytechnique in Lausanne 
(just two hours down the road from where you are :-)).

When I first learned of Parag's work, it seemed an ideal solution to generating future 
year hourly files, since we can all agree that the literal 80 year time series from the 
climate models are irrelevant; it's just the general patterns that's of interest. I know 
that multiple US national laboratories and academic consortia are doing dynamic and 
statistical downscaling of climate model results, and good for them, but those are 
multi-year efforts done with supercomputers.  On the other hand, "morphing" ignores any 
change in the patterns (frequency distribution to be more scientific :-)) and assumes that 
the patterns just shift.

Since Parag has given his blessing to me mentioning our collaboration, following is what 
Parag wrote as to references:

----

Hi Joe,

  Yes absolutely, feel free to discuss our work together so far and the origins of the 
method. I've updated the GitHub page for the repository that contains the original code to 
include the relevant references – https://github.com/paragrastogi/SyntheticWeather/ 
<https://github.com/paragrastogi/SyntheticWeather/blob/master/README.md> - also pasted 
below as a list.

 1. P. Rastogi and M. Andersen, ‘Incorporating Climate Change Predictions in the Analysis
    of Weather-Based Uncertainty’, presented at the ASHRAE and IBPSA-USA Building
    Performance Modeling Conference, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, Aug. 2016, [Online].
    Available: http://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/208743
    <http://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/208743>.
 2. P. Rastogi and M. Andersen, ‘Embedding Stochasticity in Building Simulation Through
    Synthetic Weather Files’, presented at the 14th International Conference of the
    International Building Performance Simulation Association, Hyderabad, India, Dec.
    2015, [Online]. Available: http://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/208743
    <http://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/208743>.
 3. P. Rastogi, ‘On the sensitivity of buildings to climate: the interaction of weather
    and building envelopes in determining future building energy consumption’, PhD, Ecole
    polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland, 2016. Available:
    https://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/220971?ln=en
    <https://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/220971?ln=en>. DOI:
    http://dx.doi.org/10.5075/epfl-thesis-6881
    <http://dx.doi.org/10.5075/epfl-thesis-6881>. (*Chapter 3*).

------

Joe Huang
White Box Technologies, Inc.
346 Rheem Blvd., Suite 205A
Moraga CA 94556
yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com
http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com for simulation-ready weather data
(o) (925)388-0265
(c) (510)928-2683
"building energy simulations at your fingertips"

On 2/7/2021 11:24 PM, Matthias Haase wrote:
> Dear Joe,
>
> thanks for letting us know about these future weather files. They might be really 
> helpful. Do you have a reference for the methodology you used to generate these scenarios?
>
> In addition, do you or does anyone from this list know about work that has been done on 
> collecting different regulations that require the use of such weather files to 
> "future-proof" building design (code compliance)?
>
> Best wishes
>
>
> Matthias Haase
> Professor for Building systems at Institute for Facility Management - ZHAW Zurich 
> University of Applied Sciences
> Editor of the International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment IJSBE
> Editor of the Journal of Green Building
>
> Guest Editor of Energies (available in Web of Science - Special Issue on “Sustainable 
> Renovation and Energy Retrofit in Buildings 
> <https://www.mdpi.com/journal/energies/special_issues/building_renovation_energy_retrofit>”
>
> Guest Editor of Frontiers Special Issueon Positive Energy Districts 
> <https://www.frontiersin.org/research-topics/14941>
>
> blogger <https://blogg.sintef.no/author/matthiashaase/>
> IBPSA, supporting member and project committee chair
> IBPSA, director-at-large
> IBPSA-nordic, president
> IBPSA-nordic, founding member
>
> Google Scholars <https://scholar.google.no/citations?hl=en&user=mShniYkAAAAJ>
>
> supporting member 2019 logo - use restricted to supporting member status only 
> <https://scholar.google.no/citations?hl=en&user=mShniYkAAAAJ> 
> <https://scholar.google.no/citations?hl=en&user=mShniYkAAAAJ>
>
> "/We build too many walls and not enough bridges/"
>
> Sir Isaak Newton
>
>
>
> On Sun, Feb 7, 2021 at 10:12 AM Joe Huang via Bldg-sim <bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org 
> <mailto:bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org>> wrote:
>
>     Hazem,
>
>     A colleague and I have been developing Future Year weather files for the past four
>     years using a hybrid method that does frequency analysis of future year weather time
>     series out to 2100 from dozens of Regional Climate Models,  and combines that with
>     historical weather data to produce future year weather files for any location for
>     which there are historical data.  Such a method differs from the "morphing"
>     technique that has been more commonly used whereby the monthly averages and daily
>     range from a historical weather file are adjusted according to what the models say.
>     To summarize the difference between the two methods, "morphing" assumes the climate
>     patterns don't change but just get shifted, while the hybrid method tries to
>     replicate the future climate patterns and downscale them to a specific location
>     using the historical data.
>
>     So far, we've generated future year weather files for over 120 locations around the
>     world (see attached list), and have plans to increase that to 200 locations before
>     uploading them to the White Box Technologies web site to complement the  5,000+ 
>     "typical year" and 160,000+ historical year weather files that are already there.
>     Furthermore, since our procedure has been largely automated, future year weather
>     files could be generated within a day or two for any place with over 5 years of
>     historical data,  or roughly 10,000 other locations.
>
>     If you have any questions, feel free to contact me via e-mail or post it on BLDG-SIM
>     if you think it's of general interest.
>
>     Joe
>
>     Joe Huang
>     White Box Technologies, Inc.
>     346 Rheem Blvd., Suite 205A
>     Moraga CA 94556
>     yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com  <mailto:yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com>
>     http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com  <http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com>  for simulation-ready weather data
>     (o) (925)388-0265
>     (c) (510)928-2683
>     "building energy simulations at your fingertips"
>
>     On 2/6/2021 1:19 PM, Hazem Rashed-Ali via Bldg-sim wrote:
>>
>>     Dear all,
>>
>>     I am looking for good sources for simulation weather files that reflect future
>>     climate change scenarios, or of tools that can be used to modify TMY files to
>>     reflect these scenarios.
>>
>>     Thanks a lot in advance for your suggestions.
>>
>>     Best,
>>
>>     Hazem
>>
>>     /==========================/
>>
>>     /Hazem Rashed-Ali, Ph.D., LEED AP
>>     Associate Professor, Department of Architecture
>>     The University of Texas at San Antonio/
>>
>>     /Past President, Architectural Research Centers Consortium (ARCC)
>>     Phone: 210-458-3088
>>     Fax: 210-458-3091/
>>
>>
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