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<p>Matthias, anybody else interested,<br>
</p>
<p>I've received numerous e-mails also asking for a reference on the
methodology, so I thought I'd reply publicly to your question, in
case there are other Bldg-Sim readers with the same question.</p>
<p>I do not take credit at all for using frequency analysis to
generate synthetic weather data, although I've known of the
technique since my first days at LBNL (1981) listening to a
colleague trying to do just that. The credit for using frequency
analysis to create future year weather files should go to my
colleague Parag Rastogi, who developed this method as a major part
of his Ph.D. thesis (2016) at the Ecole Polytechnique in Lausanne
(just two hours down the road from where you are :-)). <br>
</p>
<p>When I first learned of Parag's work, it seemed an ideal solution
to generating future year hourly files, since we can all agree
that the literal 80 year time series from the climate models are
irrelevant; it's just the general patterns that's of interest. I
know that multiple US national laboratories and academic consortia
are doing dynamic and statistical downscaling of climate model
results, and good for them, but those are multi-year efforts done
with supercomputers. On the other hand, "morphing" ignores any
change in the patterns (frequency distribution to be more
scientific :-)) and assumes that the patterns just shift. <br>
</p>
<p>Since Parag has given his blessing to me mentioning our
collaboration, following is what Parag wrote as to references:</p>
<p>----</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span>Hi Joe,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span> Yes absolutely, feel free to discuss our
work together so far and the origins of the method. I've updated
the GitHub page for the repository that contains the original
code to include the relevant references – <a
href="https://github.com/paragrastogi/SyntheticWeather/blob/master/README.md">https://github.com/paragrastogi/SyntheticWeather/</a>
- also pasted below as a list.</span></p>
<ol type="1" start="1">
<li class="MsoNormal"> <span>P. Rastogi and M. Andersen,
‘Incorporating Climate Change Predictions in the Analysis of
Weather-Based Uncertainty’, presented at the ASHRAE and
IBPSA-USA Building Performance Modeling Conference, Salt Lake
City, UT, USA, Aug. 2016, [Online]. Available: <a
href="http://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/208743">
http://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/208743</a>.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"> <span>P. Rastogi and M. Andersen,
‘Embedding Stochasticity in Building Simulation Through
Synthetic Weather Files’, presented at the 14th International
Conference of the International Building Performance
Simulation Association, Hyderabad, India, Dec. 2015, [Online].
Available: <a href="http://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/208743">
http://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/208743</a>.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"> <span>P. Rastogi, ‘On the sensitivity of
buildings to climate: the interaction of weather and building
envelopes in determining future building energy consumption’,
PhD, Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne,
Switzerland, 2016. </span><span lang="FR-CH">Available: </span><span><a
href="https://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/220971?ln=en"><span
lang="FR-CH">https://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/220971?ln=en</span></a></span><span
lang="FR-CH">. DOI: </span><span><a
href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5075/epfl-thesis-6881"><span
lang="FR-CH">http://dx.doi.org/10.5075/epfl-thesis-6881</span></a></span><span
lang="FR-CH">. (</span><b><span>Chapter 3</span></b><span>).</span></li>
</ol>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="90">------</pre>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="90">Joe Huang
White Box Technologies, Inc.
346 Rheem Blvd., Suite 205A
Moraga CA 94556
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:yjhuang@whiteboxtechnologies.com">yjhuang@whiteboxtechnologies.com</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com">http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com</a> for simulation-ready weather data
(o) (925)388-0265
(c) (510)928-2683
"building energy simulations at your fingertips"
</pre>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 2/7/2021 11:24 PM, Matthias Haase
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CACPM7L8YiYoWUn9aLj1yaHMiAFx6iV-D77a5DKGCCYaF-+1wQw@mail.gmail.com">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<div dir="ltr">Dear Joe,
<div><br>
</div>
<div>thanks for letting us know about these future weather
files. They might be really helpful. Do you have a reference
for the methodology you used to generate these scenarios? </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>In addition, do you or does anyone from this list know
about work that has been done on collecting different
regulations that require the use of such weather files to
"future-proof" building design (code compliance)?</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Best wishes </div>
<div>
<div>
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature"
data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
<div dir="ltr">
<div>
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div><br>
<br>
Matthias Haase<br>
Professor for Building systems at
Institute for Facility Management
- ZHAW Zurich University of
Applied Sciences</div>
<div>Editor of the International
Journal of Sustainable Built
Environment IJSBE</div>
<div>Editor of the Journal of Green
Building<br>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:normal"><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"
lang="EN-GB">Guest Editor of
Energies (available in
Web of Science - Special Issue
on “<a
href="https://www.mdpi.com/journal/energies/special_issues/building_renovation_energy_retrofit"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">Sustainable
Renovation and Energy
Retrofit in Buildings</a>”</span><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"
lang="EN-GB"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:normal"><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"
lang="EN-GB">Guest Editor of
Frontiers Special Issue</span><span
style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"
lang="EN-GB"> </span><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black"
lang="EN-GB">on <a
href="https://www.frontiersin.org/research-topics/14941"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">Positive
Energy
Districts</a></span></p>
</div>
<div><a
href="https://blogg.sintef.no/author/matthiashaase/"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">blogger</a><br>
</div>
<div><span><span>IBPSA, supporting
member and project committee
chair</span></span></div>
<div>IBPSA, director-at-large<span><span><br>
</span></span>IBPSA-nordic,
president</div>
<div>IBPSA-nordic, founding member</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a
href="https://scholar.google.no/citations?hl=en&user=mShniYkAAAAJ"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">Google
Scholars</a><br>
</p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
lang="EN-GB"><a
href="https://scholar.google.no/citations?hl=en&user=mShniYkAAAAJ"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
src="http://www.ibpsa.org/images/logo_supporting_member_2019.jpg"
alt="supporting member
2019 logo - use restricted
to supporting member
status only"
style="color:rgb(34,34,34)"
moz-do-not-send="true"
width="200" height="77"></a>
</span><a
href="https://scholar.google.no/citations?hl=en&user=mShniYkAAAAJ"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"><img
src="https://www.ashrae.org/Image%20Library/content-images/logo_ashrae.png"
style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:medium" moz-do-not-send="true"
width="96" height="66"></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="text-align:center">"<i>We
build too many walls and not
enough bridges</i>"</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="text-align:center">Sir
Isaak Newton</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sun, Feb 7, 2021 at 10:12
AM Joe Huang via Bldg-sim <<a
href="mailto:bldg-sim@lists.onebuilding.org"
moz-do-not-send="true">bldg-sim@lists.onebuilding.org</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<p>Hazem,</p>
<p>A colleague and I have been developing Future Year
weather files for the past four years using a hybrid
method that does frequency analysis of future year weather
time series out to 2100 from dozens of Regional Climate
Models, and combines that with historical weather data to
produce future year weather files for any location for
which there are historical data. Such a method differs
from the "morphing" technique that has been more commonly
used whereby the monthly averages and daily range from a
historical weather file are adjusted according to what the
models say. To summarize the difference between the two
methods, "morphing" assumes the climate patterns don't
change but just get shifted, while the hybrid method tries
to replicate the future climate patterns and downscale
them to a specific location using the historical data.</p>
<p>So far, we've generated future year weather files for
over 120 locations around the world (see attached list),
and have plans to increase that to 200 locations before
uploading them to the White Box Technologies web site to
complement the 5,000+ "typical year" and 160,000+
historical year weather files that are already there.
Furthermore, since our procedure has been largely
automated, future year weather files could be generated
within a day or two for any place with over 5 years of
historical data, or roughly 10,000 other locations.</p>
<p>If you have any questions, feel free to contact me via
e-mail or post it on BLDG-SIM if you think it's of general
interest.<br>
</p>
<p>Joe</p>
<pre cols="90">Joe Huang
White Box Technologies, Inc.
346 Rheem Blvd., Suite 205A
Moraga CA 94556
<a href="mailto:yjhuang@whiteboxtechnologies.com" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">yjhuang@whiteboxtechnologies.com</a>
<a href="http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com</a> for simulation-ready weather data
(o) (925)388-0265
(c) (510)928-2683
"building energy simulations at your fingertips"
</pre>
<div>On 2/6/2021 1:19 PM, Hazem Rashed-Ali via Bldg-sim
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Dear all,</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I am looking for good sources for
simulation weather files that reflect future climate
change scenarios, or of tools that can be used to
modify TMY files to reflect these scenarios. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Thanks a lot in advance for your
suggestions.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Best,</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Hazem </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span
style="font-size:10pt;color:blue">==========================</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span
style="font-size:10pt;color:blue">Hazem
Rashed-Ali, Ph.D., LEED AP<br>
Associate Professor, Department of Architecture<br>
The University of Texas at San Antonio</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span
style="font-size:10pt;color:blue">Past President,
Architectural Research Centers Consortium (ARCC)<br>
Phone: 210-458-3088<br>
Fax: 210-458-3091</span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
</div>
<br>
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