[UA] obsession mathematics.

[Doug Stalker]

Here's a simple graph showing the chance of success for both obsessed and
non-obsessed skills.  (It also includes the raw data and the c++ program
that generated it.)

http://doug.idleplay.net/~doug/ua/graph.html


A skill of 55% (the highest you can start with) succeeds 75% of the time. A
skill of 79% gives you a 95% margin of success.  A skill of 29% is enough to
succeed half the time.

This chart does not show the increased value of success (ex: flipping a 15
to a 51)  If enough people really cares I could figure out chance of
success/mean value of success/standard deviation of results and a few other
numbers, but I don't think they're really of much value when running the
game.

 - Doug




> the actual % increase increases up to a point, and only increases after
> you've added another match and stops after the next ten is hit, i.e. going
> from 19 to 20 increases the improvement, going from 20 to 21 doesn't.  The
> former changes increase the real statistical percentage by two,
> whereas the
> former don't change statistical percentages at all.  Addition of
> a new match
> increases the statistical percentage by one
>
> The actual increase (earmarked by tens is)
> 10% obsession = 8% improvement = 18% statistically

>
> I don't know if anyone really cares, but there's the math...

>
>
>
> _______________________________________________________
> Send a cool gift with your E-Card
> http://www.bluemountain.com/giftcenter/
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> UA mailing list
> UA at lists.uchicago.edu
> http://lists.uchicago.edu/mailman/listinfo/ua
>


_______________________________________________
UA mailing list
UA at lists.uchicago.edu
http://lists.uchicago.edu/mailman/listinfo/ua