[Bldg-sim] Lies, darn lies, and statistics

[Jim Dirkes]

Dear Chris,
Kudos for appreciating a gap in your understanding. (I'm in your camp)

On the other hand, there are SO many variables in building operation that, short of a highly instrumented (and carefully calibrated) building for everything from lights to people to plug loads to HVAC - calibration is a fiction (and I'm confident that no such building exists). Daily calibration is a complete fiction, perhaps even a deception. On top of that, a "calibrated" model is just a moment in time; everything going forward is guaranteed to be different than during the calibration time period.

I think of "calibration" as more like a sensitivity analysis - determine which variables matter more and which matter less. GenOpt works nicely for that purpose https://github.com/lbl-srg/GenOpt

Jim Dirkes 1631 Acacia Drive NW Grand Rapids, MI 49504 - 616 450 8653

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------- Original Message -------
On Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 at 6:52 AM, Chris Yates via Bldg-sim <bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org> wrote:

> Hi All
>
> I do find ASHRAE Guideline 14 a little too hardcore for my basic understanding of statistics. I can plug any of the equations into Excel, but I’ve realised my statistics understanding is very limited! (I’m outed!)
>
> We don’t actually have to work to G14 in the UK (probably good because my copy is a bit old). I finally realised I didn’t know enough after I’d been (lazily) using R2 in Excel on some monthly data. I thought that R2 > 0.9 was generally ok… yeah, it wasn’t.
>
> So, are there any easy to understand resources available?
>
> I’ve been messing around with the IMT as well. It’s been fun going back to DOS 😊. This got me into daily methods, which leads to my next question. Is there any reason why there isn’t a daily calibration option specified in G14?
>
> Many thanks!
>
> Chris Yates
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