[Bldg-sim] [ASHRAE-TC4.2] Re: cold war, cold weather...

Joe Huang yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com
Sat Jun 8 17:03:30 PDT 2019


The 1%, 99% used prior to 

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Joe Huang
White Box Technologies
346 Rheem Blvd Suite 108D
Moraga CA 94556
(o) 1(925)388-0265
(c) 1(510)928-2683
yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com

> On Jun 8, 2019, at 3:58 PM, Dru Crawley <dbcrawley at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> 1 percent of 8760 = 87.6
> 
>> On Sat, Jun 8, 2019, 6:03 PM Chris Yates via Bldg-sim <bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org> wrote:
>> Thanks Joe. This is fascinating.
>> 
>> My understanding of the percentiles 0.4, 1.0, 99 & 99.6% design data was that they covered everything except the coldest or hottest 35 or 87.6 hours in a typical year. I need to double check my understanding. All I know is that it seems to work the opposite way around if I use Excel's PERCENTILE.INC function!
>> 
>> Was the translation of the 1% to 0.4% based on the former being two seasons?
>> 
>>> On 7 Jun 2019 21:20, "Michael J Witte via Bldg-sim" <bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org> wrote:
>>> Thanks Joe - I was hoping someone would chime in with more     authority. And a fascinating personal history - who knew?
>>> 
>>>> On 6/7/2019 2:36 PM, Joe Huang via Bldg-sim wrote:
>>>> As the current chair of TC 4.2 Climatic Information, I feel obligated to reply :-)
>>>> While I admire Chris' and your enthusiasm, I am pretty certain that the design temperatures in the ASHRAE Handbook grew out of the needs of the HVAC engineers going back at least to the 1940's for cooling, and even much earlier for heating.  I'm hoping that Jeff  Haberl can clarify the situation and have cc'd him on this e-mail to get his attention. I've also cc'd the TC4.2 Group in case others remember more clearly the history of ASHRAE design temperatures. If I were a betting man, I would wager the HOF design temperatures came out of either the industry (Carrier ?) or engineers within the predecessor societies AHVE, ASHE that merged in 1959 to form ASHRAE, and that the  Air Force adopted it in their publication, rather than the other way around. As Michael had pointed out, the AF publication states that the design temperatures were "intended to support design and construction of DOD facilities", with no mention of use in military aviation.  
>>>> 
>>>> It's funny how this almost off-the-cuff decision had endured and got embellished to make it seem more hefty.  For example, in the 1960's engineers got concerned about dynamic effects and so added on hourly profiles for temperature, solar, wind, etc., to create an artificial design day, and in the 1990's to accommodate climates with different seasons (or no seasons!) the criteria was switched from  a seasonal 1% to an annual 0.4%.  Why 0.4% ?  Simply because the temperatures would match the previous 1% seasonal  (I was in TC 4.2 at the time and recalled those discussions).   The evolution of ASHRAE Design Conditions would seem also to make an interesting and informative paper.
>>>> 
>>>> As far as meteorology having an impact on military operations, I can describe an old family story.  My father, Dr. Hsia-Chien Huang, was the Chief Meteorologist of China during World War Two.  He received his Ph.D. at Caltech in the late 1930's studying with Dr. Irving Krick. Dr. Krick was hired by General Eisenhower to forecast the weather for the Normandy Invasion. The details are in the web page so I won't describe them here, only to say that I grew up hearing that Dr. Krick predicted the weather for the invasion and that someone in the UK actually produced a play about this incident. Since Dr. Krick sponsored my family to the US in 1955, I can say that the only reason I'm in the US is due to meteorology!   For the oldtimers in TC 4.2, can you guess who picked up my family when we arrived in Denver 64 years ago?  Loren Crow,  who was then working for Dr. Krick, as did my father afterwards.  Loren was very involved in TC 4.2 up until the early 1990s, having created the original WYEC files and the CTZ files for California.  Gee, maybe all these deep personal connections to meteorology might explain my late life pre-occupation with weather data!
>>>> 
>>>> Joe
>>>> 
>>>>> On 6/7/2019 7:05 AM, Michael J Witte via Bldg-sim wrote:
>>>>> Chris - Sure, go right ahead and write a joint article for CIBSE and ASHRAE.
>>>>> 
>>>>> I know ASHRAE is working on interviewing those with a long-time perspective (old-timers) to document early ASHRAE work.
>>>>> Jeff H - anything related to weather data happening in the history effort? Maybe some members of the weather data TC would contribute.
>>>>> 
>>>>> Linda - Does the forward of Engineering Weather Data have any mention of the motivation for that data? Is that where the concept of using 99% etc. was first used?
>>>>> 
>>>>> Anyone out there have a copy of the Fluor Products publication? It was cited as the source of the US design data in the 1972 HOF.
>>>>> Evaluated Weather Data For Cooling Equipment Design, Addendum No. 1, Summer and Winter Data (Fluor Products Company, Santa Rosa, Calif., 1964).
>>>>> 
>>>>>> On 6/6/2019 8:30 AM, Linda Lawrie wrote:
>>>>>> I have a copy of the Engineering Weather Data document (1978 version).  (Thanks, Bob H).  
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> And many other historical "weather data" documents though not sure how many discuss heating/cooling design data.
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> Linda
>>>>>> 
>>>>>> At 04:32 AM 6/6/2019, Chris Yates via Bldg-sim wrote:
>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> Wow. You know what Michael. I think you have the makings of an ASHRAE journal atricle! I want to do something similar for CIBSE. I'd love to use your findings. 
>>>>>>> On 5 Jun 2019 23:21, "Michael J Witte via Bldg-sim" < bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org> wrote:
>>>>>>> I haven't seen a reply yet to this, so here goes . . .
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> The oldest ASHRAE handbook on my shelf is a 1972 HOF (thanks Bob H.!). Chapter 33 is Weather Data and Design Conditions. The reference list includes these two primary sources:
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> Evaluated Weather Data For Cooling Equipment Design, Addendum No. 1, Summer and Winter Data (Fluor Products Company, Santa Rosa, Calif., 1964).
>>>>>>> and
>>>>>>> Engineering Weather Data (Army, Navy, and Air Force                   Manual TM 5-785, 1963).
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> You can buy a copy of the 1958 edition of Evaluated Weather Data on amazon
>>>>>>> https://www.amazon.com/Evaluated-Weather-Cooling-Equipment-Design/dp/B000HDSNFY 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> I bet someone out there has a copy of the Engineering Weather Data manual on a shelf. Some quick searching leads to this later online version.
>>>>>>> http://web.utk.edu/~archinfo/EcoDesign/escurriculum/weather_data/weather_data_summ.html 
>>>>>>> which says:
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> "The Engineering Weather Data (EWD) and other products were developed by the Air Force Combat Climatology Center (AFCCC). Data is provided for approximately 800 stations worldwide. Intended to support design and construction of DOD facilities, the format is slanted toward professional engineers, but could have numerous other uses. "
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> Searching AFCCC leads here to a fascinating history.
>>>>>>> https://www.airweaassn.org/Library/afwa/history.html
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> "The mission of AFCCC is one of military applied climatology. We collect, maintain, and apply worldwide weather data, creating climatological products to strengthen the combat capability of America's warfighters. AFCCC's support to America's warfighters has a long history."
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> And a fitting excerpt on the 75th anniversary of D-Day:
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> "There was probably no WWII operation, major or minor, that did not include climatological input. The planning for every landing, mission, and offensive, including the D-Day invasion in 1944 and the atomic bombing of Japan, required extensive climatological preparation and analyses."
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> So, Chris, your impression appears correct. Weather data statistics were motivated by military requirements (for better or worse), and marketing cooling equipment.
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> Mike
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> p.s. The pages from the 1972 HOF are included in a                   digitized NBSLD manual (one of the great mother programs of building simulation), pdf p. 287ff.
>>>>>>> https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-C13-9bcc6856169c63cf2c5ab81af189bd75/pdf/GOVPUB-C13-9bcc6856169c63cf2c5ab81af189bd75.pdf 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> On 5/20/2019 4:16 AM, Chris Yates via Bldg-sim wrote:
>>>>>>>> Hi All 
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> Does anybody have any interesting background on the sources of (and motivations for calculating) the outdoor design conditions now available in ASHRAE HOF?
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> My impression is that it was possibly derived for the purposes of keeping B52's and allied v-bombers ready for action at a moment's notice.
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> Cheers
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> Chris
>>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>> 
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