[Bldg-sim] Tracking Hurricane Florence through the Wilmington weather file

Mon Sep 17 14:51:42 PDT 2018

We've been playing with just running models with the last X years of actual
weather data and taking the median performance for what we're curious
about. This is super useful when you aren't concerned with energy, but
instead peak demand impacts. TMY methodology doesn't work for peaks. If
you're calibrating to actual weather data, it's not too hard to run the
last 10 years or whatever to develop your weather-normalized objective. In
design, yes, this is going to be harder.

Trying to extrapolate to future weather is something that seems like it's
worth pursuing. Didn't I see something about that?

On Mon, Sep 17, 2018 at 3:29 PM Joe Huang via Bldg-sim <
bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org> wrote:

> Nick,
>
> Nice to read your comments.  The reason I'm skeptical of attempts to
> unilaterally weed out extreme events from "typical year" data is that our
> definition of what comprises an extreme event can change over time.   If we
> are to believe the scientific consensus on climate change, extreme events
> would be more frequent and longer lasting in the future.  If the frequency
> gets high enough so that there's one extreme event a month - not
> necessarily a hurricane but rather a tropical storm or heat wave - then
> shouldn't such an event be reflected in the "typical year" weather file?
> I'd like to see the "typical year" methodology modified from producing the
> most typical weather of the past X number of years, to what would be  the
> the most likely typical weather for the future.
>
> Joe
>
> Joe Huang
> White Box Technologies, Inc.
> 346 Rheem Blvd., Suite 205A
> Moraga CA 94556yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.comhttp://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com for simulation-ready weather data
> (o) (925)388-0265
> (c) (510)928-2683
> "building energy simulations at your fingertips"
>
> On 9/17/2018 12:24 PM, Nicholas Caton wrote:
>
> To layer on to and supplement Joe’s response,  I think another neat
> factoid to consider is that while the TMY protocol generally does not
> exclude any specific months on the merits of “extreme” weather/climate
> events (which is good and rigorous from a statistical viewpoint), there
> were two historical volcanic events that have caused specific periods to be
> excluded from files in the NREL TMY3 set:  The eruptions of El Chichón,
> Mexico in 1982 and Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines in 1991.
>
>
>
> These events had substantial effects in reducing solar radiation measured
> in the United States due to aerosols pushed into the atmosphere, and as a
> result there are a net of ~6 years pulled out of the historical record to
> exclude periods following those events, for the purpose of establishing the
> months of data considered for the TMY “pools.”
>
>
>
> A fun (?) takeaway is that when the next major volcanic event occurs, we
> as a community are going to have a lot to talk about in considering the
> merits and application of the established TMY protocol against some other
> approach to incorporate the weather measurements on record for those
> excluded periods!
>
>
>
> ~Nick
>
>
>
> *Nick Caton, P.E., BEMP*
>
>   Senior Energy Engineer
>   Regional Energy Engineering Manager
>
>   Energy and Sustainability Services
>   Schneider Electric
>
> D  913.564.6361
> M  785.410.3317
> F  913.564.6380
> E  nicholas.caton at schneider-electric.com
>
> 15200 Santa Fe Trail Drive
> Suite 204
> Lenexa, KS 66219
> United States
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Bldg-sim <bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org>
> <bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org> *On Behalf Of *Joe Huang via
> Bldg-sim
> *Sent:* Sunday, September 16, 2018 12:20 PM
> *To:* Linda Lawrie <linda at fortlawrie.com> <linda at fortlawrie.com>
> *Cc:* bldg-sim at onebuilding.org
> *Subject:* Re: [Bldg-sim] Tracking Hurricane Florence through the
> Wilmington weather file
>
>
>
> [External email: Use caution with links and attachments]
> ------------------------------
>
>
>
> Larry, Linda, others,
>
>
>
> Average daily wind speed has always been one of the parameters used to
> select "typical months" in the TMY methodology used by NREL that others
> like me have followed to create the IWEC2s, etc. Its weight, however, is
> low compared to the cumulative weights for temperature (average, max, min
> dry-bulb), humidity (average, max, min dewpoint), and solar ( average
> global horizontal and sometimes also direct normal irradiance). The other
> thing to consider is that the TMY methodology does not exclude any month
> due to outliers, but looks at the difference in the cumulative distribution
> of these daily parameters to the long-term distribution, and picks that
> month with the best correspondence of CFDs. Thus, it is possible that a
> month with an extreme event might still be selected, but the fact that a
> hurricane affects all 8 or 9 parameters and can extend over several days
> makes it unlikely. On the other hand, if the statistics were to pick a
> month with a hurricane, is that really a problem? One of the things I like
> about the TMY methodology is that it aims to pick a month with the most
> representative distribution of conditions, not the blandest month with no
> peaks and valleys.
>
>
> Sent from my iPad
>
>
> On Sep 16, 2018, at 7:52 AM, Linda Lawrie via Bldg-sim <
> bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org> wrote:
>
> Larry,
>
> Wind Speed is not usually one of the items for selection of TMYs but one
> would hope that other factors might disregard those events/months.
>
> Linda
>
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