<div dir="ltr">We've been playing with just running models with the last X years of actual weather data and taking the median performance for what we're curious about. This is super useful when you aren't concerned with energy, but instead peak demand impacts. TMY methodology doesn't work for peaks. If you're calibrating to actual weather data, it's not too hard to run the last 10 years or whatever to develop your weather-normalized objective. In design, yes, this is going to be harder. <div><br></div><div>Trying to extrapolate to future weather is something that seems like it's worth pursuing. Didn't I see something about that? </div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr">On Mon, Sep 17, 2018 at 3:29 PM Joe Huang via Bldg-sim <<a href="mailto:bldg-sim@lists.onebuilding.org">bldg-sim@lists.onebuilding.org</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div text="#000000" bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<p>Nick,</p>
<p>Nice to read your comments. The reason I'm skeptical of attempts
to unilaterally weed out extreme events from "typical year" data
is that our definition of what comprises an extreme event can
change over time. If we are to believe the scientific consensus
on climate change, extreme events would be more frequent and
longer lasting in the future. If the frequency gets high enough
so that there's one extreme event a month - not necessarily a
hurricane but rather a tropical storm or heat wave - then
shouldn't such an event be reflected in the "typical year" weather
file? I'd like to see the "typical year" methodology modified
from producing the most typical weather of the past X number of
years, to what would be the the most likely typical weather for
the future.<br>
</p>
<p>Joe<br>
</p>
<pre class="m_-5799153375569405693moz-signature" cols="90">Joe Huang
White Box Technologies, Inc.
346 Rheem Blvd., Suite 205A
Moraga CA 94556
<a class="m_-5799153375569405693moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:yjhuang@whiteboxtechnologies.com" target="_blank">yjhuang@whiteboxtechnologies.com</a>
<a class="m_-5799153375569405693moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com" target="_blank">http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com</a> for simulation-ready weather data
(o) (925)388-0265
(c) (510)928-2683
"building energy simulations at your fingertips"
</pre>
<div class="m_-5799153375569405693moz-cite-prefix">On 9/17/2018 12:24 PM, Nicholas Caton
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div class="m_-5799153375569405693WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal">To layer on to and supplement Joe’s
response, I think another neat factoid to consider is that
while the TMY protocol generally does not exclude any specific
months on the merits of “extreme” weather/climate events
(which is good and rigorous from a statistical viewpoint),
there were two historical volcanic events that have caused
specific periods to be excluded from files in the NREL TMY3
set: The eruptions of El Chichón, Mexico in 1982 and Mt.
Pinatubo, Philippines in 1991.
<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">These events had substantial effects in
reducing solar radiation measured in the United States due to
aerosols pushed into the atmosphere, and as a result there are
a net of ~6 years pulled out of the historical record to
exclude periods following those events, for the purpose of
establishing the months of data considered for the TMY
“pools.”<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A fun (?) takeaway is that when the next
major volcanic event occurs, we as a community are going to
have a lot to talk about in considering the merits and
application of the established TMY protocol against some other
approach to incorporate the weather measurements on record for
those excluded periods!<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">~Nick<u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#3a7a46"><img style="width:7.5625in;height:.0937in" id="m_-5799153375569405693Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:part1.38163E6E.14E203D0@whiteboxtechnologies.com" height="9" width="726"><u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#3a7a46">Nick
Caton, P.E., BEMP</span></b><span style="color:#3a7a46"><u></u><u></u></span></p>
<table class="m_-5799153375569405693MsoNormalTable" style="width:543.0pt;border-collapse:collapse" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="724" border="0">
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#626469">
Senior Energy Engineer</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"><br>
</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#626469">
Regional Energy Engineering Manager<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#626469">
Energy and Sustainability Services</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"><br>
</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#626469">
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</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#57b069">M </span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#626469">785.410.3317
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</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#57b069">E </span><span style="color:#1f497d"><a href="mailto:nicholas.caton@schneider-electric.com" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#626469">nicholas.caton@schneider-electric.com</span></a><u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#3a7a46"><img style="width:7.5208in;height:.5104in" id="m_-5799153375569405693_x0000_i1026" src="cid:part3.E5AC1582.82602851@whiteboxtechnologies.com" height="49" width="722" border="0"><u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<div>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #e1e1e1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Bldg-sim
<a class="m_-5799153375569405693moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:bldg-sim-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org" target="_blank"><bldg-sim-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org></a>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Joe Huang via Bldg-sim<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Sunday, September 16, 2018 12:20 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> Linda Lawrie <a class="m_-5799153375569405693moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:linda@fortlawrie.com" target="_blank"><linda@fortlawrie.com></a><br>
<b>Cc:</b> <a class="m_-5799153375569405693moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:bldg-sim@onebuilding.org" target="_blank">bldg-sim@onebuilding.org</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Bldg-sim] Tracking Hurricane Florence
through the Wilmington weather file<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p><span style="color:red">[External email: Use caution with
links and attachments]</span><u></u><u></u></p>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:center" align="center">
<hr size="2" align="center" width="100%">
</div>
<p> <u></u><u></u></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Larry, Linda, others,<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Average daily wind speed has always
been one of the parameters used to select "typical months"
in the TMY methodology used by NREL that others like me
have followed to create the IWEC2s, etc. Its weight,
however, is low compared to the cumulative weights for
temperature (average, max, min dry-bulb), humidity
(average, max, min dewpoint), and solar ( average global
horizontal and sometimes also direct normal irradiance).
The other thing to consider is that the TMY methodology
does not exclude any month due to outliers, but looks at
the difference in the cumulative distribution of these
daily parameters to the long-term distribution, and picks
that month with the best correspondence of CFDs. Thus, it
is possible that a month with an extreme event might still
be selected, but the fact that a hurricane affects all 8
or 9 parameters and can extend over several days makes it
unlikely. On the other hand, if the statistics were to
pick a month with a hurricane, is that really a problem?
One of the things I like about the TMY methodology is that
it aims to pick a month with the most representative
distribution of conditions, not the blandest month with no
peaks and valleys.<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
Sent from my iPad<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><br>
On Sep 16, 2018, at 7:52 AM, Linda Lawrie via Bldg-sim
<<a href="mailto:bldg-sim@lists.onebuilding.org" target="_blank">bldg-sim@lists.onebuilding.org</a>>
wrote:<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span style="font-size:12.0pt">Larry,<br>
<br>
Wind Speed is not usually one of the items for
selection of TMYs but one would hope that other
factors might disregard those events/months.<br>
<br>
Linda</span><u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
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