[Bldg-sim] Tracking Hurricane Florence through the Wilmington weather file

Nicholas Caton Nicholas.Caton at schneider-electric.com
Mon Sep 17 12:24:12 PDT 2018

To layer on to and supplement Joe’s response,  I think another neat factoid to consider is that while the TMY protocol generally does not exclude any specific months on the merits of “extreme” weather/climate events (which is good and rigorous from a statistical viewpoint), there were two historical volcanic events that have caused specific periods to be excluded from files in the NREL TMY3 set:  The eruptions of El Chichón, Mexico in 1982 and Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines in 1991.

These events had substantial effects in reducing solar radiation measured in the United States due to aerosols pushed into the atmosphere, and as a result there are a net of ~6 years pulled out of the historical record to exclude periods following those events, for the purpose of establishing the months of data considered for the TMY “pools.”

A fun (?) takeaway is that when the next major volcanic event occurs, we as a community are going to have a lot to talk about in considering the merits and application of the established TMY protocol against some other approach to incorporate the weather measurements on record for those excluded periods!


[cid:image001.png at 01D44E91.30D7F1F0]
Nick Caton, P.E., BEMP
  Senior Energy Engineer
  Regional Energy Engineering Manager
  Energy and Sustainability Services
  Schneider Electric

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E  nicholas.caton at schneider-electric.com<mailto:nicholas.caton at schneider-electric.com>

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From: Bldg-sim <bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org> On Behalf Of Joe Huang via Bldg-sim
Sent: Sunday, September 16, 2018 12:20 PM
To: Linda Lawrie <linda at fortlawrie.com>
Cc: bldg-sim at onebuilding.org
Subject: Re: [Bldg-sim] Tracking Hurricane Florence through the Wilmington weather file

[External email: Use caution with links and attachments]


Larry, Linda, others,

Average daily wind speed has always been one of the parameters used to select "typical months" in the TMY methodology used by NREL that others like me have followed to create the IWEC2s, etc. Its weight, however, is low compared to the cumulative weights for temperature (average, max, min dry-bulb), humidity (average, max, min dewpoint), and solar ( average global horizontal and sometimes also direct normal irradiance). The other thing to consider is that the TMY methodology does not exclude any month due to outliers, but looks at the difference in the cumulative distribution of these daily parameters to the long-term distribution, and picks that month with the best correspondence of CFDs. Thus, it is possible that a month with an extreme event might still be selected, but the fact that a hurricane affects all 8 or 9 parameters and can extend over several days makes it unlikely. On the other hand, if the statistics were to pick a month with a hurricane, is that really a problem? One of the things I like about the TMY methodology is that it aims to pick a month with the most representative distribution of conditions, not the blandest month with no peaks and valleys.

Sent from my iPad

On Sep 16, 2018, at 7:52 AM, Linda Lawrie via Bldg-sim <bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org<mailto:bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org>> wrote:

Wind Speed is not usually one of the items for selection of TMYs but one would hope that other factors might disregard those events/months.

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