[UA] Suicide countdown

[Greg Stolze]

>    I take this with a generous scoop of salt.  "Some clue or warning" 
> sounds like after-the-fact conclusions being drawn.  It's vague, 
> open-ended, mentions no time frame, offers no contextual reference, 
> and only bothers counting positives, making it very easy for people to 
> find clues and warnings where none existed.  That's how superstitions 
> are born.  Until and unless there's an authoritative study of people 
> who do mention suicide, no matter how casually or jokingly, and how 
> many of THEM commit suicide in comparison to the general populace, 
> this "fact" is pretty well empty assertion.

Sure, but it only seems like common sense to think there are some 
suicides who telegraph it broadly beforehand.  Just like it seems 
sensible to think there are some who can't bring themselves to talk 
about it 'til they DO it.  I guess the opinion that's solidifying in my 
mind is that any generalization on this topic is probably a weak one, 
impossible to prove and easy to cast doubt upon.  If someone says he's 
going to top himself, do I think that means he really will?  Maybe.  If 
someone never said he was going to top himself, would I be shocked if 
he did (assuming that he was a mopey type and had terrible things going 
on in his life, etc.)?  Maybe not.

If we've learned anything from all the links on this list, it's that 
people are damn near impossible to predict.

-G.

Who's thinking about the recent Gunter Grass business...