[UA] Suicide countdown

[Magnus Lie Hetland]

On Aug 17, 2006, at 10:53, Chris Cooper wrote:

> Ultimately if someone is going to commit suicide, the
> warning signs are very subtle and there's not a lot
> one can do to prevent it. Suicides do the act in a way
> to avoid a big fuss.

I guess this is another way of phrasing what was said before. As I  
said, it's a common belief, but from what I can see the experts are  
saying, it just isn't so (in a general sense, that is).

A random (and admittedly not all that authoritative ;) example:

> Myth:  Suicide often happens without any warning.
>
> Fact:  Almost everyone who commits or attempts suicide has given  
> some clue or warning. Do not ignore suicide threats. Statements  
> like "you'll be sorry when I'm dead," "I can't see any way out," --  
> no matter how casually or jokingly said may indicate serious  
> suicidal feelings.
[...]
> Myth:  People who talk about suicide don't kill themselves.
>
> Fact:  Eight out of 10 persons who commit suicide have spoken about  
> their intent before killing themselves.
>
> <http://www.usna.edu/MDC/Clinical/suicide/myths.htm>

Another:

> Myth: “The people who talk about it don't do it.” Studies have  
> found that more than 75% of all completed suicides did things in  
> the few weeks or months prior to their deaths to indicate to others  
> that they were in deep despair. Anyone expressing suicidal feelings  
> needs immediate attention.
>
> <http://www.metanoia.org/suicide/whattodo.htm>

I'm sure finding a solid reference on the statistics here, for  
example, wouldn't be too hard.

I'm all for MythBusting [1] in general, but I think this kind of myth  
is especially important to bust.

BTW: I'm not contradicting you on that it can be hard to tell if  
someone is suicidal, or on that it's hard to prevent suicide. I'm  
just saying that it seems quite a few (8 out of 10, according to the  
first link above) suicide victims actually do talk about killing  
themselves. Now, many people may talk about it *without* any real  
intention, and the fraction of people actually killing themselves  
isn't *that* high, so Bayes's theorem will probably give quite a few  
"false positives" here, but it still seems that taking people  
seriously when they tell you they don't want to live might be a sound  
strategy for minimising risk/loss.

Of course, in no way should anyone blame themselves for *not* having  
prevented a suicide.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MythBusters

- M (getting off his soap box for now)

--
Magnus Lie Hetland
http://hetland.org