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<p class="MsoNormal">As Niels Bohr said, “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Christopher R Jones, P.Eng.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">T+ 1 416-644-0252<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><img width="60" height="29" style="width:.625in;height:.302in" id="_x0031_cc2331b-d8c3-424e-81de-2b17716d444e.png_x003f_ver_x003d_1495657656000" src="cid:image001.png@01D3F1C0.05E53A80"><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Equest-users [mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Kathryn Kerns via Equest-users<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, May 22, 2018 11:19 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> Aaron Powers <caaronpowers@gmail.com>; Nicholas Caton <Nicholas.Caton@schneider-electric.com><br>
<b>Cc:</b> equest-users@onebuilding.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Equest-users] eQUEST Calculations<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I have never been a fan of those performance contracting energy savings projects and our company has steered clear of them for the reasons listed below. I have done fluid and thermal finite element modeling and energy modeling for about
30 years off and on, and the only thing that can be said for these models is they show the user how something changes as a result of changing certain variables. The models do not predict the future nor do they justify the past.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Sometimes a difficult concept to get across to people.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:black">Kathryn Kerns</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:#1F497D"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1F497D">Systems Specialist</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:#1F497D"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;font-variant:small-caps;color:teal">BCE</span></b><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;font-variant:small-caps;color:teal">
</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;font-variant:small-caps;color:teal">Engineers, Inc.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black">| Ph: 253.922.0446 | Fx: 253.922.0896 |</span></b><span style="font-size:7.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black">
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Equest-users <<a href="mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org">equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org</a>>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Aaron Powers via Equest-users<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, May 21, 2018 5:30 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> Nicholas Caton <<a href="mailto:Nicholas.Caton@schneider-electric.com">Nicholas.Caton@schneider-electric.com</a>><br>
<b>Cc:</b> <a href="mailto:equest-users@onebuilding.org">equest-users@onebuilding.org</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Equest-users] eQUEST Calculations<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Very well put Nick, and an important perspective from the world where savings projections are guaranteed. 2 + 2 = 4, but so does 10 - 6<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">On Mon, May 21, 2018 at 7:13 PM, Nicholas Caton via Equest-users <<a href="mailto:equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org" target="_blank">equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">As an energy engineer in the performance contracting side of the industry, a defining skillset for my job is creating and then calibrating models to fit historical utility data.
We calibrate our models to a degree of rigor allowing our business to guarantee savings projected from those models (and write shortfall checks when we’re wrong). I don’t generally talk up my background, but I think in this case it helps to know where my
voice is coming from to press a nuanced response:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">It's
<u>possible</u> (again, not built-in) to automate iterative model input manipulation to “auto-tune” a building energy simulation to match a set of utility bills. You can even get the curves to fit extremely tightly over multiple meters. I’ve gone so far as
to build some such tools from scratch, and that experience has taught me some very important lessons I didn’t set out to find. Among them, an “auto-tuned” model where many inputs are guided by randomization and computer logic can in practice become
<u>very</u> difficult to trust for projecting savings, even on a relative “doesn’t need to be seen on the bills” level.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">On the other hand, if you careful to bound “auto-tuning” techniques to reasonable input ranges, and specifically to address “unknowable” model inputs which cannot be measured or
reasonably estimated/inferred, the results can become much more useful, even enlightening. This “optimal” usage of the likes of monte carlo analysis, with and without machine learning algorithms, is anything but an “easy” button.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">I use doe2/eQuest as my primary energy simulation platform, however all of the above advice is platform-agnostic and holds true whether you’re crunching degree-day analyses in excel
or wielding rooms of supercomputers in the cloud with e+.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">If calibration
<u>matters</u>, and you’re not doing so just to tick some prescriptive box, best practice during model development is to keep mindful track of which inputs are:
<o:p></o:p></p>
<ol start="1" type="1">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo3">
<u>Known</u> <o:p></o:p></li></ol>
<ol start="1" type="1">
<ol start="1" type="a">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l1 level2 lfo3">
General Hierarchy of “Known:” Design/Construction Documents < As-Builts < RCx reports < Current field measurements & observations<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l1 level2 lfo3">
Be mindful that construction documents and nameplate data are better than nothing, but commonly do not match reality and may be better considered as “informed estimates.” Allow some room for doubt.
<o:p></o:p></li></ol>
</ol>
<ol start="2" type="1">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo3">
<u>Estimated</u> <o:p></o:p></li></ol>
<ol start="2" type="1">
<ol start="1" type="a">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l1 level2 lfo7">
For existing buildings, this most inputs will be “estimated.” <o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l1 level2 lfo7">
If for example you have to define fan power based on scheduled static pressure loss and airflows on the drawings… that’s just aligning your estimate with the designer’s. Actual is probably something different.<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l1 level2 lfo7">
Software defaults you understand are ready to “own” or explain fall under this category<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l1 level2 lfo7">
This includes anything “auto-sized” <o:p></o:p></li></ol>
</ol>
<ol start="3" type="1">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo7">
<u>Guesswork</u> <o:p></o:p></li></ol>
<ol start="3" type="1">
<ol start="1" type="a">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l1 level2 lfo10">
This includes software defaults that you are relying upon but haven’t yet investigated/understood.
<o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l1 level2 lfo10">
This includes “known unknowns” for lack of information / resources. <o:p></o:p></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;mso-list:l1 level2 lfo10">
A pretty common example is envelope constructions where (a) you have no architectural details/specifications to reference all the layers in the middle and (b) you aren’t budgeted/resourced to tear up a client’s walls to find out what’s inside.<o:p></o:p></li></ol>
</ol>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">Considering the degree of input complexity for something like an eQuest model, I feel there will always be some blend of all if these input categories for every project and every
individual modeler. Experience helps, though as the years pile on, for every new topic I get a lock on measuring/estimating, I feel like I learn about two more issues that were previously not on my radar… “the more I see the less I know!”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">Having rough estimates and unknowns is fine, but the more that you
<u>know</u> or else can <u>reasonably estimate</u>, the better your initial calibration results will turn out, and the quicker the process of iteratively “tuning” a model will go. When you have a good record kept of which inputs are particularly solid vs.
estimated/guesswork, you can work your way up the tree, marrying that knowledge to assumed/tested input sensitivity on the results, and plot a course to find your way back to the billed amounts!<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">Hope this is helpful!<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">~Nick<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#3A7A46"><img border="0" width="726" height="9" style="width:7.5625in;height:.0937in" id="m_1979403371695839565Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image004.png@01D3F1C0.05DE0E90"></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#3A7A46">Nick Caton, P.E., BEMP</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#626469"> Senior Energy Engineer</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1F497D"><br>
</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#626469"> Regional Energy Engineering Manager</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#626469"> Energy and Sustainability Services</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1F497D"><br>
</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#626469"> Schneider Electric</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#57B069">D </span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#626469">913.564.6361
</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1F497D"><br>
</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#57B069">M </span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#626469">785.410.3317
</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1F497D"><br>
</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#57B069">F </span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#626469">913.564.6380</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1F497D"><br>
</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#57B069">E </span><span style="color:#1F497D"><a href="mailto:nicholas.caton@schneider-electric.com" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#626469">nicholas.caton@schneider-electric.com</span></a></span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#626469">15200 Santa Fe Trail Drive<br>
Suite 204<br>
Lenexa, KS 66219<br>
United States</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b>From:</b> Equest-users [mailto:<a href="mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org" target="_blank">equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org</a>]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>David Eldridge via Equest-users<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Saturday, May 19, 2018 2:08 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:equest-users@onebuilding.org" target="_blank">equest-users@onebuilding.org</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Equest-users] eQUEST Calculations<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:#1F497D">If you mean automatically adjusting the parameters of the model inputs to minimize error against the actual utility data by using a basis such as ASHRAE
Guideline 14, then no eQUEST does not have that capability built in.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:#1F497D"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:#1F497D">You wouldn’t be changing the internal calculations – some review of the inputs and outputs should provide insight into what variables are known and which
are assumed and may have a reasonable range of values resulting in a better fit to the utility data.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:#1F497D"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:#1F497D">With some on-site data such as what you’d be collecting for energy audits anyway, you can usually get an accurate model to start with, or with few iterations.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:#1F497D"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:#1F497D">There are other code/programs/platforms available that can help optimize, but requires a little more effort up front to either run the programming yourself
or using a packaged program to setup the modeling files in a different program and tell the optimization program which variables have which range of values to be allowed.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:#1F497D"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:#1F497D">I hope this helps.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:#1F497D"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:#1F497D">David</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b><span style="color:#1F497D">David S. Eldridge, Jr.</span><span style="color:#244061">, P</span><span style="color:#1F497D">.</span><span style="color:#244061">E</span><span style="color:#1F497D">.</span><span style="color:#244061">,
LEED AP BD+C, BEMP, BEAP, HBDP</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:#1F497D">Associate</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:4.0pt;color:#1F497D"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:#365F91">Direct: (847) 316-92</span><span style="color:#1F497D">24</span><span style="color:#365F91"> | Mobile: (</span><span style="color:#1F497D">773</span><span style="color:#365F91">)
</span><span style="color:#1F497D">490</span><span style="color:#365F91">-</span><span style="color:#1F497D">5038</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b><span style="color:#244061">Grumman/Butkus Associates</span></b><span style="color:gray">
</span><span style="color:#365F91">| 820 Davis Street, Suite 300 | Evanston, IL 60201</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:9.0pt;color:gray">Energy Efficiency Consultants and Sustainable Design Engineers</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><u><span style="font-size:9.0pt;color:gray"><a href="http://grummanbutkus.com/" target="_blank"><span style="color:gray">grummanbutkus.com</span></a></span></u><span style="font-size:9.0pt;color:gray">
| <u><a href="http://grummanbutkus.com/blog" target="_blank"><span style="color:gray">Blog</span></a></u> |
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<u><a href="https://twitter.com/grummanbutkus" target="_blank"><span style="color:gray">Twitter</span></a></u></span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:#1F497D"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b>From:</b> Equest-users [<a href="mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org" target="_blank">mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org</a>]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Tom McGovern via Equest-users<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Friday, May 18, 2018 4:45 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org" target="_blank">equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Equest-users] eQUEST Calculations<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">Hello,
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">Have a question regarding the internal calculations performed by eQUEST. Am new to eQUEST and just looking to understand some basics. Trying to figure out if there is some way to
modify internal eQUEST calculations so baseline model may be adjusted to fit existing utility bills or if there is no way to modify internal eQUEST calculations and we need various end arounds to fit baseline eQUEST model to fit existing utility bills.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto">Thanks,
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><br>
Tom McGovern<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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