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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText>Not a bad idea but… a true monte carlo analysis relies on random number generation, which would yield different occupancies every time you ran the simulation and therefore different energy results. Which output would you submit for code compliance? The HVAC industry has simplified/approximated this by implementing diversity factors. Not to mention the additional layers of complexity you’d have to add to the software, modeling standards etc.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='color:#0F243E'>Anthony Hardman, PE<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:9.0pt;color:#0F243E'>LEED AP BD&C</span></b><b><span style='color:#0F243E'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#0F243E'>Building Performance Analyst<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#0F243E'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='color:#00B050'>THE GREEN ENGINEER, LLP</span></b><b><span style='color:#00B050'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='color:#00B050'>Sustainable Design Consulting – Energy Modeling – LEED Project Management </span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#0F243E'>50 Beharrell St<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#0F243E'>Concord, MA 01742<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#0F243E'>O: 978/610-2801<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#0F243E'>C: 720/840-7862<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#0F243E'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="http://www.greenengineer.com/"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:blue;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=49 height=47 id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image001.jpg@01CBB267.AD7D0B60" alt="Description: TGE Logo"></span></a><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/in/ahardman81"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=52 height=47 id="Picture_x0020_2" src="cid:image002.jpg@01CBB267.AD7D0B60" alt="Description: images5"></span></a><a href="http://twitter.com/#!/a_Hardman"><span style='color:blue;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=49 height=47 id="Picture_x0020_3" src="cid:image003.jpg@01CBB267.AD7D0B60" alt="Description: t4"></span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#0F243E'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText>-----Original Message-----<br>From: equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org [mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org] On Behalf Of Charles Land<br>Sent: Wednesday, January 12, 2011 2:31 PM<br>To: Eurek, John S NWO; equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org<br>Subject: Re: [Equest-users] Monte Carlo (UNCLASSIFIED)<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The only problem would be as you said the unrepeatability. You could always make a complex schedule and put 5 people one day for a few hours then 9 then etc... Probably wouldn't be worth the time though.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>-----Original Message-----<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>From: equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org [mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org] On Behalf Of Eurek, John S NWO<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Sent: Wednesday, January 12, 2011 4:12 PM<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>To: equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Subject: [Equest-users] Monte Carlo (UNCLASSIFIED)<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Classification: UNCLASSIFIED<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Caveats: NONE<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>I don't know who writes the equest program, but is there any expectation of getting a Monte Carlo type simulation?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>What is Monte Carlo? It is a method of stating the probability of an event then running simulation. A great example is the occupancy in a room:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>example [80% chance of being empty, 10% of having 5 people and 10% chance of having 9 people. (From 8a.m. till 5p.m.)]<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Then each hour it randomly selects either (0,5,9) people based on the probability.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>(The only problem would be each run would have unique results, but over the full year the deviations would be minimal.)<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>It would really help with meeting rooms, bathrooms, and all the other random events that can better be expressed as a probability rather than a set number at a set time.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Currently when you have 10 offices and occupancy is 10%, there is a 1/10th of a person in each office. Monte Carlo would say that each office has a 10% chance of a person being present, and the person would be there or they would not.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Just a question. We make a living making stuff up, this is just another way to get closer to making up better stuff.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Classification: UNCLASSIFIED<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Caveats: NONE<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>_______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Equest-users mailing list<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><a href="http://lists.onebuilding.org/listinfo.cgi/equest-users-onebuilding.org"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>http://lists.onebuilding.org/listinfo.cgi/equest-users-onebuilding.org</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>To unsubscribe from this mailing list send a blank message to <a href="mailto:EQUEST-USERS-UNSUBSCRIBE@ONEBUILDING.ORG"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>EQUEST-USERS-UNSUBSCRIBE@ONEBUILDING.ORG</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>_______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Equest-users mailing list<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><a href="http://lists.onebuilding.org/listinfo.cgi/equest-users-onebuilding.org"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>http://lists.onebuilding.org/listinfo.cgi/equest-users-onebuilding.org</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>To unsubscribe from this mailing list send a blank message to <a href="mailto:EQUEST-USERS-UNSUBSCRIBE@ONEBUILDING.ORG"><span style='color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'>EQUEST-USERS-UNSUBSCRIBE@ONEBUILDING.ORG</span></a><o:p></o:p></p></div></body></html>