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--></style></head><body lang="EN-US" link="blue" vlink="purple"><div class="WordSection1"><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" color="black" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;color:black">You might enjoy this paper that will help you quantify the change in modeled outputs that result from changes to an input variable.</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" color="black" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;color:black"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" color="black" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;color:black"><a href="http://www.hvac.okstate.edu/research/Documents/Spitler_Fisher_Zietlow_89.pdf">http://www.hvac.okstate.edu/research/Documents/Spitler_Fisher_Zietlow_89.pdf</a></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" color="black" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;color:black"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" color="black" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;color:black">Although not quite the same thing that you are after, you can perform this evaluation with quite a bit fewer iterations and get some idea where to focus on refining the model.</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" color="black" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;color:black"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" color="black" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;color:black">Use BLAST for extra credit ;)</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" color="black" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;color:black"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" color="black" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;color:black">David</span></font></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><font size="2" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";font-weight:bold">From:</span></font></b><font size="2" face="Tahoma"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif""> <a href="mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org">equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org</a> [mailto:<a href="mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org">equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org</a>] <b><span style="font-weight:bold">On Behalf Of </span></b>Anthony Hardman<br>
<b><span style="font-weight:bold">Sent:</span></b> Wednesday, January 12, 2011 3:55 PM<br><b><span style="font-weight:bold">To:</span></b> 'Eurek, John S NWO'; <a href="mailto:equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org">equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org</a><br>
<b><span style="font-weight:bold">Subject:</span></b> Re: [Equest-users] Monte Carlo (UNCLASSIFIED)</span></font></p></div></div><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Not a bad idea but… a true monte carlo analysis relies on random number generation, which would yield different occupancies every time you ran the simulation and therefore different energy results. Which output would you submit for code compliance? The HVAC industry has simplified/approximated this by implementing diversity factors. Not to mention the additional layers of complexity you’d have to add to the software, modeling standards etc.</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><font size="2" color="#0f243e" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;color:#0F243E;font-weight:bold">Anthony Hardman, PE</span></font></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" color="#0f243e" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;color:#0F243E"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><a href="http://www.greenengineer.com/"><font size="2"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;text-decoration:none"><img border="0" width="49" height="47" id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image001.jpg@01CBB287.9DA05290" alt="Description: TGE Logo"></span></font></a><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/in/ahardman81"><font color="black"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none"><img border="0" width="52" height="47" id="Picture_x0020_2" src="cid:image002.jpg@01CBB287.9DA05290" alt="Description: images5"></span></font></a><a href="http://twitter.com/#!/a_Hardman"><span style="text-decoration:none"><img border="0" width="49" height="47" id="Picture_x0020_3" src="cid:image003.jpg@01CBB287.9DA05290" alt="Description: t4"></span></a></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="2" color="#0f243e" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;color:#0F243E"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">-----Original Message-----<br>
From: <a href="mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org">equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org</a> [mailto:<a href="mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org">equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org</a>] On Behalf Of Charles Land<br>
Sent: Wednesday, January 12, 2011 2:31 PM<br>To: Eurek, John S NWO; <a href="mailto:equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org">equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org</a><br>Subject: Re: [Equest-users] Monte Carlo (UNCLASSIFIED)</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">The only problem would be as you said the unrepeatability. You could always make a complex schedule and put 5 people one day for a few hours then 9 then etc... Probably wouldn't be worth the time though.</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">-----Original Message-----</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">From: <a href="mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org">equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org</a> [mailto:<a href="mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org">equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org</a>] On Behalf Of Eurek, John S NWO</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Sent: Wednesday, January 12, 2011 4:12 PM</span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">To: <a href="mailto:equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org">equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org</a></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Subject: [Equest-users] Monte Carlo (UNCLASSIFIED)</span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Classification: UNCLASSIFIED</span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Caveats: NONE</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">I don't know who writes the equest program, but is there any expectation of getting a Monte Carlo type simulation?</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">What is Monte Carlo? It is a method of stating the probability of an event then running simulation. A great example is the occupancy in a room:</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">example [80% chance of being empty, 10% of having 5 people and 10% chance of having 9 people. (From 8a.m. till 5p.m.)]</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Then each hour it randomly selects either (0,5,9) people based on the probability.</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">(The only problem would be each run would have unique results, but over the full year the deviations would be minimal.)</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">It would really help with meeting rooms, bathrooms, and all the other random events that can better be expressed as a probability rather than a set number at a set time.</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Currently when you have 10 offices and occupancy is 10%, there is a 1/10th of a person in each office. Monte Carlo would say that each office has a 10% chance of a person being present, and the person would be there or they would not.</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Just a question. We make a living making stuff up, this is just another way to get closer to making up better stuff.</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Classification: UNCLASSIFIED</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Caveats: NONE</span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText">
<font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"> </span></font></p><p class="MsoPlainText"><font size="2" face="Calibri"><span style="font-size:11.0pt">_______________________________________________</span></font></p>
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