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<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Thanks David, that’s good
to hear the level of rigor there was high and expected by the client.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>I guess my concern here, if I
had to summarize it, is that being X% away from the energy bills risks conflating
precision for accuracy. Now, if you’re 1-2% away on month by month maybe you
can start to feel like you’re more accurate, but even that still seems
potentially too large grained to me. Maybe that’s naïve – I certainly
don’t have the experience you, or many of the people on this board have. I
think ultimately, the energy modeler just needs to understand that the
limitations of the tool and the uncertainty involved with inputs affect
accuracy at least as much as being close to energy bills. Most importantly,
that all needs to be communicated and understood by the client so they don’t
think they are receiving something that they are not.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Good discussion, thanks!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Eric<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> David Bastow
[mailto:dbastow@mcclure-engineering.com] <br>
<b>Sent:</b> Thursday, June 17, 2010 11:20 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> Eric O'Neill; aazhari@jainconsultants.com;
equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> RE: [Equest-users] Actual Building Energy Cost<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:blue'>Of course, your fee reflects the
amount of accuracy the client is requiring you to have. Some clients
might only expect 5-20% accuracy, and of course you would provide them with a
lower fee. However, in over 17 years of running hourly, climate history
based, energy estimating software, (not always eQUEST), I don't ever remember
doing a study where we were satisfied with being more than 5% off on our
final base model. If you are happy with being 25% or more off, then why
even do a model, you might as well just guess or do some kind of energy saving
hand calculation. The fun part is getting modeled gas usage and
electrical usage, month to month, to follow historical monthly trends and still
be close to the annual energy usage on both. When you get both
the annual energy usage and the monthly energy usage of gas and electric
close to historical usage, then that's when you feel good about your base model
to compare against ECM runs.</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:blue'>No one said this was easy.
That's why you earn ever dime of your fee. Your first
preliminary base model run, if you do a good job, might be 5-20% off
historical usage. To even get that close normally requires an
extensive survey, documenting ever identifiable energy using item,
interviews regarding usage by the occupants and maybe even data logging
usage of some important items, to confirm actual usage. It can,
depending on the size and complexity of the modeled building, take several
days to a week or more and a hundred or more runs to just create
a good solid base model, that reflects historical usage. That's why modeling
a new building, without any historic energy usage data to match, other than
approximate BTU's per square foot, is a piece of cake. </span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><em><b><span style='font-size:24.0pt;
font-family:"Bradley Hand ITC";color:blue'>David A. Bastow </span></b></em><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><em><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Rockwell Extra Bold","serif"'>McClure Engineering, Inc. </span></b></em><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div class=MsoNormal align=center style='margin-left:.5in;text-align:center'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center>
</span></div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
12.0pt;margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> Eric O'Neill
[mailto:elo@MichaelsEngineering.com] <br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, June 16, 2010 3:52 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> David Bastow; aazhari@jainconsultants.com;
equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> RE: [Equest-users] Actual Building Energy Cost</span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'>How
much effort was put into minimizing the error of your inputs to justify that
level of accuracy in your output? For example, did you convert real weather
data for the two years and use an average of the simulations? Were you modeling
small buildings so you could get a fairly reasonable infiltration rate
empirically? Were occupancy schedules trended, and for how long? Were all the
systems and controls working correctly, with all sensors calibrated regularly? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'>1 to 2%
seems to me to be fairly unreasonable. Unless you do an amazing job verifying
your inputs, in my opinion that level of precision doesn’t get you a
better model. If you set everything up as best you can and it comes in there,
great! But a correctly set up model can be off by over 2% because of a couple
“El Nino” years, a facilities guy locking a humidity high limit to
50% for a summer, or any number of operational factors. On the other side of
it, we’ve tried to match a simple DOE2.2 model to a DOE2.1e model with
limited success (I don’t think we got within 3%, although we didn’t
spend too much time with it). Who knows what the difference would be with E+.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'>I know
I always squirm when I’m asked to do existing building models, and it may
be irrational. Heck, if the DOE is asking for 1-2%, I probably am being
irrational. But it seems to me that the error from assumptions could easily
swing a model 1-2% (what would a 30% error on your infiltration do to an
otherwise correct building?). What are other people’s thoughts? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'>Eric<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org
[mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>David
Bastow<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, June 16, 2010 3:48 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> aazhari@jainconsultants.com; equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Equest-users] Actual Building Energy Cost<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:blue'>On all the DOE modeling
projects that we have done, of an existing building, they have required the
model to be within 1 to 2% or less of the actual energy usage, based on an
average two year history. Is that what you are talking about?</span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><em><b><span style='font-size:
24.0pt;font-family:"Bradley Hand ITC";color:blue'>David A. Bastow </span></b></em><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><em><b><span style='font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:"Rockwell Extra Bold","serif"'>McClure Engineering,
Inc. </span></b></em><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style='margin-left:.5in'>
<div class=MsoNormal align=center style='margin-left:.5in;text-align:center'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center>
</span></div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
12.0pt;margin-left:1.0in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>
equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org
[mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Ahmed
Azhari<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, June 16, 2010 12:10 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> [Equest-users] Actual Building Energy Cost</span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'>Hi all, <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'>Does anyone have a ballpark
percentage of the <b>actual</b> annual energy cost versus the <b>modeled</b>
annual energy cost for a building? <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'>Thanks,<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span lang=EN-CA style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>__________________________________________________________________________</span><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:#0F243E'>Ahmed Azhari</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#002060'>,
</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:gray'>B.Eng., LEED® AP</span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#002060'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:gray'>Energy Analyst<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:gray'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='color:#0F243E'>Jain
Sustainability Consultants Inc.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='color:#002060'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:gray'>2260 Argentia Road, 2nd Floor<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:gray'>Mississauga, Ontario L5N 6H7, CANADA<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:gray'>Tel: (905) 542 7211 Ext 234<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:gray'>Fax: (905) 542 7622<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:gray'>Email:</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt'> </span><a
href="mailto:aazhari@jainconsultants.com"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:#0F243E'>aazhari@jainconsultants.com</span></a><span style='font-size:
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<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
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