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<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Nick,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>I should make it clear that my
initial questions weren’t meant to drill David. I’m genuinely
interested if the DOE projects required an extremely high level of technical
accuracy on the input side. (Although they were also somewhat of a reaction to
those requirements.) We have this discussion in our office every so often, and
I’m usually somewhat on my own, but I’m still not convinced.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Would you mind elaborating a
little more about why you feel this to be true:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>“HOWEVER: The
concept of building a model for an existing building, whose modeled energy
consumption/costs fall within a 1-2% of historical utility records, is entirely
feasible – and a reasonable requirement if the goal is to generate a
model for predictive purposes.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>So let me ask it this way. Let’s
say you’ve got a model, and it’s coming in about 6% low (both
heating and electric), but to the best of your knowledge everything is set up
properly. You’ve got to start making some educated guesses to close the
gap. Do you assume the boiler needs a tuning (drop your efficiency a few
percent) and the AHU coils need to be cleaned (bump up your static)? Or do you
bump up your infiltration slightly (because it’s probably not a very
tight building). Or did some maintenance guy came along and switched on both
the boiler pump manually on when he got a cold complaint, and no one returned
them to auto? Or maybe you have data from a few years with abnormally warm
summers and cold winters. I could go on practically ad nauseum. There’s
just so many things that can be wrong with an existing building, as all of you
probably know.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Whatever you choose, that guess
you make may interact (or lack an interaction) with some measures you’re predicting.
So, predicatively, what makes a 1-2% off model better than a 5-6% off model
unless you really spend the time and find out whether your inputs are accurate?
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Cheers,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Eric<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> Nick Caton [mailto:ncaton@smithboucher.com]
<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, June 16, 2010 5:43 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> Eric O'Neill; David Bastow; aazhari@jainconsultants.com;
equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> RE: [Equest-users] Actual Building Energy Cost<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'>While I
(and I am sure many others) have books to write regarding my thoughts on the
topic, I think I might suggest a simple step back: The concept of <u>predictively</u>
modeling to within a few percentage points of accuracy is ridiculous.
There are simply way to many things that could not be known.
HOWEVER: The concept of building a model for an existing building,
whose modeled energy consumption/costs fall within a 1-2% of historical utility
records, is entirely feasible – and a reasonable requirement if the goal
is to generate a model for predictive purposes. How often such predictive
models’ accuracy is misinterpreted is something I get depressed to think
about.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'>I
haven’t done the DOE-modeling work that’s being referenced with
such requirements, but I have done work for educational clients
(physics/building science departments) who wish to get these models set up for
ongoing study/tweaking purposes. The exercise is challenging, and as
close as energy modeling gets to “fun,” when you can rest at ease
knowing the client is fully on board with what the model is and
isn’t. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'>It’s
fully rational to squirm and cringe when you have to make models that you know
will be mis-used and mis-understood, despite your best efforts. Fortunate
is the practicing energy modeler who gets to work for fully educated clients
and design teams all the time =).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'>Rather
than drill David, I think it would be safe to assume those DOE requirements
exist to calibrate a model to a given degree to whatever historical records are
available, NOT to mandate a level of accuracy for predictive purposes. If
I’m wrong, I hope that work never crosses my desk!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'>~Nick<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'><img
width=119 height=37 id="_x0000_i1027" src="cid:image001.jpg@01CB0D9B.0A217D50"
alt="cid:489575314@22072009-0ABB"></span><b><span style='font-family:"Stylus BT";
color:#2D4D5E'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-family:"Stylus BT";
color:#2D4D5E'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-family:"Stylus BT";
color:#2D4D5E'>NICK CATON, E.I.T.</span></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Stylus BT";color:#2D4D5E'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:7.5pt;
color:#CC9900'>PROJECT ENGINEER</span><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:
"Times New Roman","serif";color:#CC9900'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:#2D4D5E'>25501 west valley parkway<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:#2D4D5E'>olathe ks 66061<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:#2D4D5E'>direct 913 344.0036<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:#2D4D5E'>fax 913 345.0617<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><i><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:#2D4D5E'>Check out our new web-site @ </span></i><span style='color:#1F497D'><a
href="www.smithboucher.com" title="blocked::www.smithboucher.com"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'>www.smithboucher.com</span></a></span><u><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'> </span></u><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org [mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Eric O'Neill<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, June 16, 2010 4:52 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> David Bastow; aazhari@jainconsultants.com;
equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Equest-users] Actual Building Energy Cost<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'>How
much effort was put into minimizing the error of your inputs to justify that
level of accuracy in your output? For example, did you convert real weather
data for the two years and use an average of the simulations? Were you modeling
small buildings so you could get a fairly reasonable infiltration rate
empirically? Were occupancy schedules trended, and for how long? Were all the
systems and controls working correctly, with all sensors calibrated regularly? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'>1 to 2%
seems to me to be fairly unreasonable. Unless you do an amazing job verifying
your inputs, in my opinion that level of precision doesn’t get you a
better model. If you set everything up as best you can and it comes in there,
great! But a correctly set up model can be off by over 2% because of a couple
“El Nino” years, a facilities guy locking a humidity high limit to
50% for a summer, or any number of operational factors. On the other side of
it, we’ve tried to match a simple DOE2.2 model to a DOE2.1e model with
limited success (I don’t think we got within 3%, although we didn’t
spend too much time with it). Who knows what the difference would be with E+.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'>I know
I always squirm when I’m asked to do existing building models, and it may
be irrational. Heck, if the DOE is asking for 1-2%, I probably am being
irrational. But it seems to me that the error from assumptions could easily
swing a model 1-2% (what would a 30% error on your infiltration do to an
otherwise correct building?). What are other people’s thoughts? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'>Eric<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org
[mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>David
Bastow<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, June 16, 2010 3:48 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> aazhari@jainconsultants.com; equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Equest-users] Actual Building Energy Cost<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:blue'>On all the DOE modeling
projects that we have done, of an existing building, they have required the
model to be within 1 to 2% or less of the actual energy usage, based on an
average two year history. Is that what you are talking about?</span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><em><b><span style='font-size:
24.0pt;font-family:"Bradley Hand ITC";color:blue'>David A. Bastow </span></b></em><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><em><b><span style='font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:"Rockwell Extra Bold","serif"'>McClure Engineering,
Inc. </span></b></em><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style='margin-left:.5in'>
<div style='margin-left:.5in'>
<div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center>
</span></div>
</div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
12.0pt;margin-left:1.0in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>
equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org
[mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Ahmed
Azhari<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, June 16, 2010 12:10 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> [Equest-users] Actual Building Energy Cost</span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'>Hi all, <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'>Does anyone have a ballpark
percentage of the <b>actual</b> annual energy cost versus the <b>modeled</b>
annual energy cost for a building? <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'>Thanks,<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span lang=EN-CA style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>__________________________________________________________________________</span><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:#0F243E'>Ahmed Azhari</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#002060'>,
</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:gray'>B.Eng., LEED® AP</span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#002060'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
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color:gray'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='color:#0F243E'>Jain
Sustainability Consultants Inc.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='color:#002060'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
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<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:1.0in'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><br>
<br>
__________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature
database 5202 (20100616) __________<br>
<br>
The message was checked by ESET Smart Security.<br>
<br>
<a href="http://www.eset.com">http://www.eset.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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