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<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>While I (and I am sure many
others) have books to write regarding my thoughts on the topic, I think I might
suggest a simple step back: The concept of <u>predictively</u> modeling to
within a few percentage points of accuracy is ridiculous. There are
simply way to many things that could not be known. HOWEVER: The
concept of building a model for an existing building, whose modeled energy
consumption/costs fall within a 1-2% of historical utility records, is entirely
feasible – and a reasonable requirement if the goal is to generate a
model for predictive purposes. How often such predictive models’
accuracy is misinterpreted is something I get depressed to think about.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>I haven’t done the DOE-modeling
work that’s being referenced with such requirements, but I have done work
for educational clients (physics/building science departments) who wish to get
these models set up for ongoing study/tweaking purposes. The exercise is challenging,
and as close as energy modeling gets to “fun,” when you can rest at
ease knowing the client is fully on board with what the model is and isn’t.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>It’s fully rational to
squirm and cringe when you have to make models that you know will be mis-used
and mis-understood, despite your best efforts. Fortunate is the
practicing energy modeler who gets to work for fully educated clients and
design teams all the time =).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Rather than drill David, I think
it would be safe to assume those DOE requirements exist to calibrate a model to
a given degree to whatever historical records are available, NOT to mandate a
level of accuracy for predictive purposes. If I’m wrong, I hope
that work never crosses my desk!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>~Nick<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><img width=119 height=37
id="_x0000_i1027" src="cid:image002.jpg@01CB0D79.484AD9E0"
alt="cid:489575314@22072009-0ABB"></span><b><span style='font-family:"Stylus BT","sans-serif";
color:#2D4D5E'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Stylus BT","sans-serif";
color:#2D4D5E'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Stylus BT","sans-serif";
color:#2D4D5E'>NICK CATON, E.I.T.</span></b><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Stylus BT","sans-serif";color:#2D4D5E'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:7.5pt;color:#CC9900'>PROJECT ENGINEER</span><span
style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";color:#CC9900'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#2D4D5E'>25501 west
valley parkway<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#2D4D5E'>olathe ks 66061<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#2D4D5E'>direct 913
344.0036<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#2D4D5E'>fax 913
345.0617<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#2D4D5E'>Check out
our new web-site @ </span></i><span style='color:#1F497D'><a
href="www.smithboucher.com" title="blocked::www.smithboucher.com"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt'>www.smithboucher.com</span></a></span><u><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'> </span></u><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>
equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org
[mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Eric
O'Neill<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, June 16, 2010 4:52 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> David Bastow; aazhari@jainconsultants.com;
equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Equest-users] Actual Building Energy Cost<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>How much effort was put into
minimizing the error of your inputs to justify that level of accuracy in your
output? For example, did you convert real weather data for the two years and
use an average of the simulations? Were you modeling small buildings so you
could get a fairly reasonable infiltration rate empirically? Were occupancy
schedules trended, and for how long? Were all the systems and controls working
correctly, with all sensors calibrated regularly? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>1 to 2% seems to me to be fairly
unreasonable. Unless you do an amazing job verifying your inputs, in my opinion
that level of precision doesn’t get you a better model. If you set
everything up as best you can and it comes in there, great! But a correctly set
up model can be off by over 2% because of a couple “El Nino” years,
a facilities guy locking a humidity high limit to 50% for a summer, or any
number of operational factors. On the other side of it, we’ve tried to
match a simple DOE2.2 model to a DOE2.1e model with limited success (I
don’t think we got within 3%, although we didn’t spend too much
time with it). Who knows what the difference would be with E+.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>I know I always squirm when
I’m asked to do existing building models, and it may be irrational. Heck,
if the DOE is asking for 1-2%, I probably am being irrational. But it seems to
me that the error from assumptions could easily swing a model 1-2% (what would
a 30% error on your infiltration do to an otherwise correct building?). What
are other people’s thoughts? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Eric<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org
[mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>David
Bastow<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, June 16, 2010 3:48 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> aazhari@jainconsultants.com; equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Equest-users] Actual Building Energy Cost<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:blue'>On all the DOE modeling
projects that we have done, of an existing building, they have required the
model to be within 1 to 2% or less of the actual energy usage, based on an
average two year history. Is that what you are talking about?</span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><em><b><span style='font-size:24.0pt;
font-family:"Bradley Hand ITC","serif";color:blue'>David A. Bastow </span></b></em><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><em><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Rockwell Extra Bold","serif"'>McClure Engineering, Inc. </span></b></em><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style='margin-left:.5in'>
<div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center>
</span></div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
12.0pt;margin-left:.5in'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>
equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org
[mailto:equest-users-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Ahmed
Azhari<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, June 16, 2010 12:10 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> equest-users@lists.onebuilding.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> [Equest-users] Actual Building Energy Cost</span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'>Hi all, <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'>Does anyone have a ballpark
percentage of the <b>actual</b> annual energy cost versus the <b>modeled</b>
annual energy cost for a building? <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'>Thanks,<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span lang=EN-CA style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>__________________________________________________________________________</span><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:#0F243E'>Ahmed Azhari</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#002060'>,
</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:gray'>B.Eng., LEED® AP</span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:#002060'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:gray'>Energy Analyst<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:gray'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#0F243E'>Jain
Sustainability Consultants Inc.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='color:#002060'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:gray'>2260 Argentia Road, 2nd Floor<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:gray'>Mississauga, Ontario L5N 6H7, CANADA<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:gray'>Tel: (905) 542 7211 Ext 234<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:gray'>Fax: (905) 542 7622<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:gray'>Email:</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt'> </span><a
href="mailto:aazhari@jainconsultants.com"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:#0F243E'>aazhari@jainconsultants.com</span></a><span style='font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:gray'>Web: </span><a href="http://www.jainassoc.com/"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;color:#0F243E'>www.jainassoc.com</span></a><span
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