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<p class="MsoNormal">You are allowed to make an M&V plan and then define what you did given the information available. In your case you are using G14 informatively, it wasn’t required that you follow it or report that you were using it.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The only thing I can add is maybe you can focus on validating some of the inputs – if the utility data is spotty then document what you do know from the input side – if you can show some of your most sensitive input variables are validated
that would help give confidence that the outputs are also likely to be useful.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Open Sans",sans-serif">David<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Open Sans",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Open Sans",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Bldg-sim <bldg-sim-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Chris Yates via Bldg-sim<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, March 14, 2023 1:10 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> 'David Eldridge' <dancingdavide@hotmail.com>; 'Jim Dirkes' <jvdirkes2@protonmail.com><br>
<b>Cc:</b> bldg-sim@onebuilding.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Bldg-sim] Lies, darn lies, and statistics<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">I think I need to qualify this: informed by G14, but definitely not compliant with it! There is some allowance for repairing or “healing” data, but when the data has a lot of holes or modes/ category variables then forget
it. This is my case, but the client still wants some kind of representative simulation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Monthly models can be garbage. School holidays cut across months at different times, combined heat and power is popular which complicates gas usage especially when metering is limited… did the heat by-product of electricity
generation go to the building, or was it rejected? They can work for heating in our temperate climate, but not for cooling.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Nevertheless, we need some kind of representative simulation model. We can’t make any ECM qualifying claims but we can do something useful. This is where these methods can give you a lot of insight before you start modelling.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">I hadn’t tried the IMT previously. We tend to have limited our regression analysis to monthly “degree day” methods (your 2p model, I think). I plugged some project specific daily electricity data into the MVR example
(multi variate regression) and it seemed to give decent CVRMSE (~2-3%) but low R2 (~0.7). However, it appeared to provide some insight on cooling usage (monthly 2p models are meaningless for this in the UK’s temperate climate).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">I also made some 2p monthly models of gas. I thought these were good until I compared successive years.
<b>I guess this is were understanding a range of statistical indices is helpful.</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Here’s the final rub, because the underlying data has so many inconsistencies that can only be made sense of with some regression models, it’s easier to “calibrate” the simulation model to the regression models than the
original data. But I may use 2p monthly for gas, daily MVR for electric…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">So I need to ask if I have wondered completely off-piste with this!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Chris<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> David Eldridge <<a href="mailto:dancingdavide@hotmail.com">dancingdavide@hotmail.com</a>>
<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, March 14, 2023 12:53 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> Jim Dirkes <<a href="mailto:jvdirkes2@protonmail.com">jvdirkes2@protonmail.com</a>><br>
<b>Cc:</b> <a href="mailto:chris.malcolm.yates@gmail.com">chris.malcolm.yates@gmail.com</a>;
<a href="mailto:bldg-sim@onebuilding.org">bldg-sim@onebuilding.org</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [Bldg-sim] Lies, darn lies, and statistics<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">Indirectly there probably isn’t a daily set of metrics in the Guideline since the simulation programs aren’t usually outputting daily results, but there’s no reason there couldn’t be one statistically.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">You could make one if you had only daily utility data and had to aggregate the simulation results to daily totals, there isn’t a published target metric but you could still show that you calculated one and why you think
it was a good or bad result.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB">DSE Mobile<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB">On Mar 14, 2023, at 6:10 AM, Jim Dirkes via Bldg-sim <<a href="mailto:bldg-sim@lists.onebuilding.org">bldg-sim@lists.onebuilding.org</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Dear Chris,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Kudos for appreciating a gap in your understanding. (I'm in your camp)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">On the other hand, there are SO many variables in building operation that, short of a highly instrumented (and carefully calibrated) building for everything from
lights to people to plug loads to HVAC - calibration is a fiction (and I'm confident that no such building exists). Daily calibration is a complete fiction, perhaps even a deception. On top of that, a "calibrated" model is just a moment in time; everything
going forward is guaranteed to be different than during the calibration time period.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">I think of "calibration" as more like a sensitivity analysis - determine which variables matter more and which matter less. GenOpt works nicely for that purpose <a href="https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgithub.com%2Flbl-srg%2FGenOpt&data=05%7C01%7C%7C0d63c1ff284443bc766608db247cc033%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638143890442545264%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=hMX7ISkjm6aByq3ZaUXf5p2QKTf3nlOBYbgP7ALodWQ%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank">https://github.com/lbl-srg/GenOpt</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:6.0pt"><span class="font"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#222222;background:white">Jim Dirkes 1631 Acacia Drive NW Grand Rapids, MI 49504 -
616 450 8653</span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="font"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#222222;background:white">Coffee Conversation:</span></b></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="font"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:black;background:white">The "individual" is an impossible concept, conceived by the Enlightenment philosophers. It makes no sense to the Christian. In marriages, and families, in associations
and friendships and religious orders, we are not individuals, but a communion of persons.</span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB">------- Original Message -------<br>
On Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 at 6:52 AM, Chris Yates via Bldg-sim <<a href="mailto:bldg-sim@lists.onebuilding.org">bldg-sim@lists.onebuilding.org</a>> wrote:<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span lang="EN-GB">Hi All<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span lang="EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span lang="EN-GB">I do find ASHRAE Guideline 14 a little too hardcore for my basic understanding of statistics. I can plug any of the equations into Excel, but I’ve realised my
statistics understanding is very limited! (I’m outed!)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span lang="EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span lang="EN-GB">We don’t actually have to work to G14 in the UK (probably good because my copy is a bit old). I finally realised I didn’t know enough after I’d been (lazily)
using R2 in Excel on some monthly data. I thought that R2 > 0.9 was generally ok… yeah, it wasn’t.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span lang="EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span lang="EN-GB">So, are there any easy to understand resources available?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span lang="EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span lang="EN-GB">I’ve been messing around with the IMT as well. It’s been fun going back to DOS
</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family:"Segoe UI Emoji",sans-serif">😊</span><span lang="EN-GB">. This got me into daily methods, which leads to my next question. Is there any reason why there isn’t a daily calibration option specified in G14?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span lang="EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span lang="EN-GB">Many thanks!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span lang="EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span lang="EN-GB">Chris Yates<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span lang="EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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