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<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Don't put too much stock in the AEO. The AEO is just a long term, steady state projection under current policy conditions, and the modelled macro-economic variables in the AEO iteslf, i.e. a putatative "most likely" case. </font>
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<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">In this case, it is almost a foregone conclusion that the policy conditions will be different from what the AEO modelled. After the conclusion of the "Bali" post-Kyoto round in 2 to 4 years, there will be some sort of worldwide agreement to limit Carbon emissions, and that will feedback into future AEO's before 2030.</font>
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<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The other thing the AEO, and other long-term models are not good at modelling is technology discontinuity. Because of the large interest that has been generated in this topic, the odds are very high is that some technologies will come along that change some of the economic assumptions (relative costs of energy from various sources) within the AEO model well before 2030. </font>
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<br /></font>------ Original Message ------
<br /><b>Received: </b>09:02 AM PST, 12/26/2007
<br /><b>From: </b>"Vikram Sami" <VSami@lasarchitect.com>
<br /><b>To: </b>"Ramana Koti" <ramana.koti@gmail.com>, <BLDG-SIM@ONEBUILDING.ORG>
<br /><b>Cc: </b>sbse@uidaho.edu
<br /><b>Subject: </b>Re: [Bldg-sim] Grim projection of renewable energy use
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<div dir="ltr" align="left"><span class="976365316-26122007"><font face="Arial" color="#0000ff" size="2">I think we are in flux right now, and as such its going to be hard to make a prediction based on trends. For example, if the federal RPS had passed, the outlook would have been very different. Ultimately its not entirely an issue of percentages, but also absolute numbers. For example in the 1940s - 1950s, there was a 30% renewable mix. Today we produce more renewable energy, but the overall percentage is far below. </font></span>
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<div dir="ltr" align="left"><span class="976365316-26122007"><font face="Arial" color="#0000ff" size="2"></font></span>
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<div dir="ltr" align="left"><span class="976365316-26122007"><font face="Arial" color="#0000ff" size="2">Initiatives like architecture 2030 work towards reducing the overall consumption levels. We need policy makers to step in and encourage the other side of the equation. One of the items removed from the recently passed bill was a motion to transfer 13.5 billion dollars in subsidies (billion with a B) from the top 5 oil corporations to fund renewable energy production. </font></span>
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<div dir="ltr" align="left"><span class="976365316-26122007"><font face="Arial" color="#0000ff" size="2"></font></span>
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<div dir="ltr" align="left"><span class="976365316-26122007"><font face="Arial" color="#0000ff" size="2">To quote Al Gore in his Nobel speech: </font></span>
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<p>We have everything we need to get started, save perhaps political will, but political will is a renewable resource.
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<p>So let us renew it, and say together: "We have a purpose. We are many. For this purpose we will rise, and we will act."
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<p><b><font face="Garamond" color="#000000">Vikram Sami,</font></b> <font face="Garamond" color="#000000">LEED AP</font><b></b>
<br /><font face="Garamond" color="#000000">Direct Phone 404-253-1466 | Direct Fax 404-253-1366</font>
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<p><b><font face="Garamond" color="#800000">L</font><font face="Garamond" color="#800000" size="2">ORD</font><font face="Garamond" color="#800000">, A</font><font face="Garamond" color="#800000" size="2">ECK</font><font face="Garamond" color="#800000"> & S</font><font face="Garamond" color="#800000" size="2">ARGENT</font><font face="Garamond" color="#800000"> A</font><font face="Garamond" color="#800000" size="2">RCHITECTURE</font>
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<br /><font face="Garamond" size="2">Responsive Design</font> <font face="Symbol" size="1">·<font face="Courier New"></font></font> <font face="Garamond" size="2">Technological Expertise</font> <font face="Symbol" size="1">·<font face="Courier New"></font></font> <font face="Garamond" size="2">Exceptional Service</font>
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<p><b><font face="Garamond" color="#008000">Please don't print this email unless you really have to</font></b><i><font face="Garamond" color="#008000">.</font></i>
<br /><i><font face="Garamond" color="#008000">In the United States, we use enough office paper each year to build a 10-foot high wall that’s 6,815 miles long or two and a half times the distance from New York to Los Angeles. </font></i>
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<p><i><font face="Garamond" color="#008000">~ Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, “Recycling Facts and Figures,” PUBL CE-163, 2002.</font></i>
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<hr tabindex="-1" /> <font face="Tahoma" size="2"><b>From:</b> bldg-sim-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org [mailto:bldg-sim-bounces@lists.onebuilding.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Ramana Koti
<br /><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, December 26, 2007 11:31 AM
<br /><b>To:</b> BLDG-SIM@ONEBUILDING.ORG
<br /><b>Cc:</b> sbse@uidaho.edu
<br /><b>Subject:</b> [Bldg-sim] Grim projection of renewable energy use
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</div>Dear all,
<br />
<br />The Annual Energy Outlook 2008 by the DOE EIA (<a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/trends.html">http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/trends.html</a>) predicts that in 2030, 83% US primary energy supply requirements would still be met by traditional fossil fuels, compared to 85% in 2006. I find this in direct contrast with goals set by initiatives like Architecture 2030...
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<br />Does anybody know more about how realistic these predictions are and if there are better opportunities for renewable energy?
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<br />Thanks,
<br clear="all" />
<br />Ramana Koti, LEED AP
<br />Sustainable Building Analyst
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<br />ELEMENTS division of BNIM architects
<br />106 W. 14th Street Suite 200
<br />Kansas City, Missouri 64105
<br />
<br />p 816.783.1635 f 816.783.1501
<br />www.bnim.com| <a href="http://elements.bnim.com">elements.bnim.com</a>
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