[Bldg-sim] Energy model calibration - normalizing the utility bills to month start-end

Collinge, William Overton woc6 at pitt.edu
Tue Jun 23 10:27:59 PDT 2015


All,

This is a fantastic thread, and I am wondering if it could be taken one step further to query if anyone has experience with methods to attempt calibrating models of energy savings attributable to retrofits of multiple systems simultaneously (plant, envelope, HVAC etc. - as most real-world retrofits likely are), going past the 4- or 5-parameter breakpoint regression models to incorporate inverse modeling of specific load types and their space- or time-variable characteristics. This would fit under multivariate methods in the last line of Table 2 in the older version of ASHRAE Guideline 14 that Jeff Haberl has posted on his website, and would attempt to standardize Maria's Step 5 below without (possibly) the need to conduct as much in-depth field verification as might otherwise be required. I've dabbled in this a little bit...without extensive discussions with others...

Example: changing the OA ventilation rate is going to have a specific load profile versus some retrofit that affects the solar gain rate. Of course, much easier in theory to do calibrations of this sort with hourly meter data versus monthly utility bills...

Bill Collinge
Postdoctoral Scholar
University of Pittsburgh
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering



From: Bldg-sim [mailto:bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org] On Behalf Of Maria Karpman
Sent: Tuesday, June 23, 2015 12:02 PM
To: 'Jeff Haberl'; 'Joe Huang'; bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org
Subject: Re: [Bldg-sim] Energy model calibration - normalizing the utility bills to month start-end

Hello all,

We usually do the following to calibrate model to monthly utility bills:

1)      Create or purchase weather file corresponding to pre-retrofit period for which we have billing data. Lately we've been using WeatherAnalytics files, which we found to be more cost effective than creating our own (they charge $40 for an annual file).

2)      Run simulation using this weather file instead of TMY.

3)      Standard simulation reports (we typically use eQUEST) show usage by calendar month (e.g. January, February, etc.) which is usually not aligned with dates of utility bills, as noted in the question that started this thread. As Brian mentioned in one of the earlier posts, this may be circumvented by entering the actual meter read dates into eQUEST as shown in the screenshot below. This will align usages shown in eQUEST's "E*" reports such as ES-E with the actual utility bills.  The approach does not allow entering more than one read date per month (e.g. we can't capture April 3 - 28 bill). For projects where this limitation is an issue we generate hourly reports that show consumption by end use for each meter in the project, and aggregate it into periods that are aligned with utility bills.

[cid:image002.png at 01D0ADB7.5B5B12A0]



4)      We then copy simulation outputs (either from ES-E or hourly reports, depending on the method used) into a standard spreadsheet with utility data. The spreadsheet is set up to plot side by side monthly utility bills and simulated usage, and also calculates normalized mean bias error (NMBE) and variance CV(RMSE).

5)      If we did not to where we want to be with NMBE and CV(RMSE) we adjust and re-run the model, and re-paste results into the same spreadsheet.

In my experience regression analysis using weather as independent variable (i.e. running model with TMY file and normalizing for difference in weather) or relying on HDD to allocate usage to billing periods can be very misleading, mainly because on many projects weather is not the main driver of consumption. For example energy usage of a school during a given time period depends much more on vacation schedule than outdoor dry bulb temperatures.

Thanks,

--
Maria Karpman LEED AP, BEMP, CEM
________________
Karpman Consulting
www.karpmanconsulting.net<http://www.karpmanconsulting.net/>
Phone 860.430.1909
41C New London Turnpike
Glastonbury, CT 06033

From: Bldg-sim [mailto:bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org] On Behalf Of Jeff Haberl
Sent: Tuesday, June 23, 2015 10:16 AM
To: Joe Huang; bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org<mailto:bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org>
Subject: Re: [Bldg-sim] Energy model calibration - normalizing the utility bills to month start-end


Hello Joe,



Yes, you can count the degree days and regress against that to show a correlation. However, one will get a better "fit" to the weather data if you regress to the degree day that is calculated for the balance point temperature of the building -- hence the inverse model toolkit or the variable based degree day method.



PRISM actually calculates the degree days to a variety of change points and actually provides a table for each location that you use as a look up. The IMT will actually perform a variable based degree day calculation that agrees well with PRISM. IMT will also provide you with the average daily temperature for the billing period.



When using DOE-2 for actual billing periods, one will have to extract the appropriate hourly variable, sum it to daily and then regroup to align with the billing periods. Here's a chunk of code that will create a dummy plant, display PV-A, PS-A, PS-E and BEPS, and extract the relevant hourly variables to normalize the BEPS to the utility bills:



INPUT PLANT ..



PLANT-REPORT VERIFICATION = (PV-A)

$ PV-A, EQUIPMENT SIZES



SUMMARY = (PS-A,PS-E,BEPS)



$ PS-A, PLANT ENERGY UTILIZATION SUMMARY

$ PS-E, MONTHLY ENERGY END USE SUMMARY

$ BEPS, BUILDING ENERGY PERFORMANCE SUMMARY



HVAC=PLANT-ASSIGNMENT ..



$ EQUIPMENT DESCRIPTION

$ ELECTRIC DOMESTIC WATER HEATER



BOIL-1 =PLANT-EQUIPMENT TYPE=ELEC-DHW-HEATER SIZE=-999 ..



$ ELECTRIC HOT-WATER BOILER



BOIL-2 =PLANT-EQUIPMENT TYPE=ELEC-HW-BOILER SIZE=-999 ..



$ HERMETICALLY SEALED CENT CHILLER



CHIL-1 =PLANT-EQUIPMENT TYPE=HERM-CENT-CHLR SIZE=-999 ..



$ Graphics block for Data Processing ***



RP-3 = SCHEDULE THRU DEC 31 (ALL) (1,24) (1) ..



$ 8 = Total PLANT heating load (Btu/h)

$ 9 = Total PLANT cooling load (Btu/h)

$ 10 = Total PLANT electric load (Btu/h)



BLOCK-3-1 = REPORT-BLOCK

VARIABLE-TYPE = PLANT

VARIABLE-LIST = (8,9,10) ..

BLOCK-3-2 = REPORT-BLOCK

VARIABLE-TYPE = GLOBAL

VARIABLE-LIST = (1) ..

HR-3 = HOURLY-REPORT

REPORT-SCHEDULE = RP-3

REPORT-BLOCK = (BLOCK-3-1,BLOCK-3-2) ..



END ..



COMPUTE PLANT ..



STOP ..


8=!  8=)  :=)  8=)  ;=)  8=)  8=(  8=)  8=()  8=)  8=|  8=)  :=')  8=) 8=?
Jeff S. Haberl, Ph.D.,P.E.inactive,FASHRAE,FIBPSA,......jhaberl at tamu.edu<mailto:........jhaberl at tamu.edu>
Professor........................................................................Office Ph: 979-845-6507
Department of Architecture............................................Lab Ph:979-845-6065
Energy Systems Laboratory...........................................FAX: 979-862-2457
Texas A&M University...................................................77843-3581
College Station, Texas, USA, 77843.............................http://esl.tamu.edu
8=/  8=)  :=)  8=)  ;=)  8=)  8=()  8=)  :=)  8=)  8=!  8=)  8=? 8=) 8=0
________________________________
From: Bldg-sim [bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org] on behalf of Joe Huang [yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com]
Sent: Monday, June 22, 2015 9:17 PM
To: bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org<mailto:bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org>
Subject: Re: [Bldg-sim] Energy model calibration - normalizing the utility bills to month start-end
Maybe I'm missing something here, but why can't you just count up the degree days for the utility period?
I hope you're not working with average or "typical year" degree days, but the degree days from the same time period.

I also recall that the old Princeton Scorekeeping Method (PRISM) back in the 1980's allows the user to enter the degree days for that time period, so it's not a new problem.

Joe


Joe Huang

White Box Technologies, Inc.

346 Rheem Blvd., Suite 205A

Moraga CA 94556

yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com<mailto:yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com>

http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com for simulation-ready weather data

(o) (925)388-0265

(c) (510)928-2683

"building energy simulations at your fingertips"
On 6/22/2015 6:09 AM, Jones, Christopher wrote:
When calibrating an energy model to utility bills the utility bills often don't align with the month start and end.  I have reviewed a couple methods to calendar normalize the utility bills but find them somewhat unsatisfactory.

For example the method I am looking at does the following:
The April gas bill runs from March 25 - April 24.  The algorithm takes the average number of m3 per day from that bill, applies it to the days in April.  Then it takes the average number of days from the May bill which runs from April 24 - May 25 and applies that average to the remaining days in April.

The issue is that the March-April period has much higher HDD than the April-May period and the "normalized" gas usage is significantly lower than the simulation data for April.

I am wondering if there are any papers or other sources of information as to how others approach this problem.


[cid:image003.png at 01D09C46.E75BA0D0]
Christopher Jones,P.Eng.
Senior Engineer

WSP Canada Inc.
2300 Yonge Street, Suite 2300
Toronto, ON M4P 1E4
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