[Bldg-sim] Recommended reading on comparison of models to actual?
John R Ross III PE
energy.wwind at cox.net
Fri Jun 28 08:25:45 PDT 2013
Hi Jeremiah;
I think you misunderstood my offer of co-operation.
I did NOT offer you a FORTRAN IV model of the energy use of a building
dating from 1977 or 1980. I had both at one time. The 1980 model simply
crushed a few thousand combinations of insulation, finance rates, etc.
I DID offer Phase Change Energy Solutions and Vesture Corporation in
Ashboro NC a trial Proof of Concept installation site with an
established energy
performance over 3 different heat pump installations, with and without
active thermal
solar on the roof running, asymmetric soffits, among other features in
Washington DC's
challenging 4000 degree day heating season and humid 2000 degree day
cooling season..
That offer has expired.
"modeling has came a long way since 1897! "
Yes it has. that would make me, with BSME at age 20 (didn't have as
much content back then)
about 136 years old now. On the factual side you will find evidence of
extremely sophisticated
solar pond engineering in early Precolumbian South America in
Ecuador?? Peru?? the Solar
ponds keep the growing vegetables relatively warm at night..........
The argument centers on
how they came up with the design without Western math tools - trig,
calculus......
I do not have much time for NDA's and tele-meetings... thanks anyway
You never replied to me directly at all; Since my misunderstood offer.
If you don't have any time for NDA's , where does that leave you in
Todays (started March 15, 2013) First-to-File Patent Law Landscape ???
versus the old first to invent system..........
By the way guys on the list "Pre -- Columbian" as used here means
before Christopher Columbus;
nothing else, and it was not in the spelling checker. (LOL)
OK Back to Work It's 1130am early lunch is gone.........
bye
On 6/27/2013 5:32 PM, Jeremiah Crossett wrote:
> Hi Jeremiah,
>
> Would you mind sharing the resources people have shared with you, namely:
> Tianzhen, thanks for the link.
> Zheng, thanks for the recommended reading.
> Matt, thanks for the link.
>
> Thanks.
>
> Diego
> Doctoral Candidate
> Harvard University
>
> Diego,
> I thought the responses that I got where posted to the list. For you
> and others reference I post all of the responses I got:
>
> 1. Try green building advisor
>
>
> (My response to this) I read this
> http://www.greenbuildingadvisor.com/blogs/dept/musings/energy-modeling-isn-t-very-accurate a
> while ago and did not think much of the way they talked badly about
> modeling, and would prefer information from actual modelers, as I am
> using this to support my actual modeling.. To me their article seems
> like it is downplaying the benefits of modeling, written by someone
> who is reading about modeling and writing an article
> rather than actively doing it. It seems like taking advice about how
> to design a building from a contractor, they understand a bit, but
> really it is the architect and engineer that know what they are doing,
> the contractor is just the one who does it, or possibly more like
> getting news from a friend rather than the source.
>
> I am looking for personal experience or peer reviewed scientific
> papers. If anyone can help?
>
>
> Thanks
>
> 2. Hi;
>
> I've got a custom house that started as an ASME design project. It
> was built in 1986.
> We moved in January 1987. I have extensive records of energy used,
> features active
> in a particular month...... would you be interested in a technology
> demonstrator in the
> Washington DC metro area ??
>
> How about a Non Disclosure Agreement and a tele-meeting ??
>
> JRR
>
> (My response) I am not so interisted in this due to the age of the
> model and complexity of the response.., modeling has came a long way
> since 1897! and I do not have much time for NDA's and tele-meetings...
> thanks anyway
>
> 3. *Jeremiah,*
>
> **
>
> *I think you'll find a room full of experts and lots of advice on this
> at the upcoming SPC 209 Meeting at ASHRAE in Denver. I've enclosed a
> copy of the agenda, as well as the Chair's email, Jason Glazer. Part
> of the work for 209 is assembling the list you are looking for.*
>
> **
>
> *Also, you'll find useful information in the new Guideline 14, and in
> the Energy Management Handbook, by Doty and Turner.www.ibpsa.org
> <http://www.ibpsa.org/> and the www.esl.tamu.edu
> <http://www.esl.tamu.edu/> are also good places to check as well.*
>
> **
>
> *Jeff*
>
> **
>
> *++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++*
>
> *AGENDA*
>
> *ASHRAE SPC209 Energy Simulation Aided Design*
>
> Monday, June 24, 2013
>
> 2:15-6:15p Governor's Square 12 (plaza building, concourse level)
>
> Sheraton Denver Downtown -
>
> Denver Colorado
>
> 1.*CALL TO ORDER*
>
> 1.1.Roll Call/Quorum Determination
>
> 1.2.Introduction of Members and Guests
>
> 1.3.Announcements
>
> 2.*AGENDA REVIEW*
>
> 3.*MINUTES OF THE LAST MEETING - Nelson*
>
> 4.*LIAISON REPORTS -- Anyone present*
>
> 5.*SUBCOMMITTEE REPORTS*
>
> 5.1.Predesign Subcommittee - Sheffer
>
> 5.2.Conceptual design/Schematic design - Katzenberger
>
> 5.3.Design development/Construction documents -- Baker
>
> 5.4.Construction/Commissioning/As-Built/Operations - Reddy
>
> 5.5.Resources/References/Definitions Subcommittee - DeBaillie
>
> 6.*OLD BUSINESS*
>
> 7.*NEW BUSINESS*
>
> 8.*NEXT MEETING:*//
>
> /8.1./*Standards writing tutorial*//
>
> /8.2./*Subcommittee calls*//
>
> /8.3./*Full committee calls*//
>
> 9.*ADJOURN*
>
> *//*
>
> */Subcommittee Meeting Times and Locations: (all in plaza building,
> concourse level)/*
>
> /SPC 209 Predesign Subcommittee - Sunday 6:00-10:00p Plaza Court 3/
>
> /SPC 209 Design development/Construction documents - Sunday 6:00-10:0p
> Plaza Court 6/
>
> /SPC 209 Construction/Commissioning/As-Built/Operations - Sunday
> 6:00-10:00p Plaza Court 1/
>
> /SPC 209 Resources/References/Definitions Subcommittee- Monday
> 8:00a-Noon Plaza Court 1/
>
> /SPC 209 Conceptual design/Schematic design -Monday 8:00a-Noon Plaza
> Court 7/
>
> *//*
>
> ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
>
> 8=! 8=) :=) 8=) ;=) 8=) 8=( 8=) 8=() 8=) 8=| 8=) :=') 8=)8=?
>
> Jeff S. Haberl, Ph.D.,P.E., FASHRAE.............. jhaberl at tamu.edu
> <mailto:jhaberl at tamu.edu>
>
> Professor............................................................Office
> Ph: 979-845-6507
>
> Department of Architecture.............................Lab Ph:979-845-6065
>
> Energy Systems Laboratory.............................FAX: 979-862-2457
>
> Texas A&M University.....................................77843-3581
>
> College Station, Texas, USA,
> 77843..................URL:www.esl.tamu.edu <http://www.esl.tamu.edu/>
>
> 8=/ 8=) :=) 8=) ;=) 8=) 8=() 8=) :=) 8=) 8=! 8=) 8=? 8=)8=0
>
>
> (my response) sorry Could not make it this year:(
>
> 4. Jeremiah,
>
> That is an important topic among researchers and practitioners in the
> simulation community for the last 20-30 years.
>
> I made a presentation on this topic in a public EETD/LBNL seminar, A
> closer look at the energy performance of buildings: simulated vs.
> measured. Slides are available in PDF at
> http://eetd.lbl.gov/news/events/2011/03/03/a-closer-look-at-the-energy-performance-of-buildings-simulated-vs-measured
>
> I have some journal articles discussing related topics. You can find
> them by using the Google Scholar.
>
> Tianzhen
>
> (my response) Tianzhen, thanks for the link. This is good work, well
> done and very much what I was looking for.
>
> 5. Jeremiah,
>
> In the last couple of years, we did a couple of cases with DoD
> buildings and you can check the following papers:
>
> 1.O'Neill, Z.D. and B. Eisenhower. 2013. Leveraging the Analysis of
> Parametric Uncertainty for Building Energy Model Calibration. Building
> Simulation: An International Journal. DOI 10.1007/s12273-013-0125-8.
>
> 2.O'Neill, Z. D., B. Eisenhower, V. Fonoberov and T. Bailey. 2012.
> Calibration of a Building Energy Model Considering Parametric
> Uncertainty. ASHRAE Transactions, 118(2). ASHRAE Annual Meeting. San
> Antonio, TX. Jun 23--27, 2012.
>
> 3.O'Neill, Z. D., B. Eisenhower, S. Yuan, T. Bailey, S. Narayanan and
> V. Fonoberov.2011. Modeling and Calibration of Energy Models for a DoD
> Building. ASHRAE Transactions, 117(2): 358-365. ASHRAE Annual Meeting.
> Montreal, Québec, Canada. June 25--29, 2011.
>
> Zheng
>
> =======================================
>
> Zheng O'Neill, PhD, PE
>
> Department of Mechanical Engineering
>
> The University of Alabama
>
> Box 870276
>
> Tuscaloosa, AL 35487-0276 USA
>
>
> (My response) Zheng, thanks for the info, I may purchase one of these
> papers, looks like very good work.
>
>
> 6. Hi Jeremiah,
>
>
> This might be too simplistic for what you're trying to do, and it's
> more "hands on" as opposed to "peer-reviewed research" but for some
> quick checks here's what I do:
>
> * Compare to CBECS. I use www.buildingbenchmarks.com
> <http://www.buildingbenchmarks.com/>. It's a quick and free website.
> You enter basic info (zip code, square footage range, primary building
> activity, and range of years the building was completed) and it pulls
> the relevant info from CBECS for you. It gives you a simple breakdown
> of average annual electric and gas usage by activity (not monthly,
> unfortunately). So within a few seconds you can see how your model
> compares.
>
> * For existing buildings with utility bills available, I run a
> baseline energy report per ASHRAE 14. I use www.noesisenergy.com
> <http://www.noesisenergy.com/>, another free tool. I enter in 12+
> months of utility bills and it will generate weather-normalized
> baseline reports, complete with the regression analysis equations.
> They use heating and cooling degree days from the closest weather
> station to your site (based on the calculated balance point
> temperatures for heating or cooling), plus utility billing days for
> each month. They do NOT factor in other variables like occupancy or
> production. You can compare actual, adjusted baseline, and typical
> consumption for each month, for each utility. So if you're using TMY2
> or TMY3 weather data in your model, you can see how it compares to the
> typical monthly consumption from the baseline report. I use this as a
> guide for calibration.
>
> I've had a discussion with William Ball at Noesis about using their
> tools to better support energy modelers, and encouraged him to check
> out IBPSA.
>
> Again, this might be missing the point of your request, and a little
> too simplistic, so I didn't want to post it to the entire Bldg Sim
> listserv....
>
> Best of luck in your efforts and please let me know what you find!
>
> Matt Huffman, LEED AP
> Manager, Energy Services
> Murphy & Miller, Inc.
>
> (My response) Matt, these look like very useful tools, saving time
> going through the database also providing useful data normalization.
> Thanks, I did not know about this service and will put it to use in
> the future.
>
> 7. Dear Jeremiah,
> I recently completed my dissertation on reusing today's design-phase
> (compliance) energy models post-design, focusing on a building owner's
> perspective. For #2, "How does a proposed building typically stack up
> against the utility bills?", I'd say it partially depends on the
> original purpose of the model. Was the modeler trying to predict
> utility bills, or rather demonstrate compliance with a code/standard?
> For example, for LEED-compliance models under older LEED (ASHRAE 90.1)
> protocol, modelers made default assumptions regarding plug-loads.
> This could lead to very inaccurate models, especially for
> energy-intensive programs such as labs or data centers. I have some
> case studies, but they're essentially specific to these older versions
> of LEED. I'm not sure if that's helpful to you.
>
> For #3, "How accurate should an existing building model be to be
> considered useful?", I'd say it depends on what you're trying to do
> with the model. Test future retrofits? Benchmark the building? Detect
> subtle equipment faults? I have a couple case studies that involved
> such major building faults that even relatively poorly-calibrated
> models (per ASHRAE 14 definitions) helped detect the problems. Again,
> I'm not sure if that's relevant to you.
>
> I'm happy to share my findings if they're relevant. Please contact me
> if this sounds like it might be helpful.
> Best,
> Holly
> Holly W. Samuelson
> Doctor of Design | Registered Architect | LEED AP BD+C
> Lecturer Harvard Graduate School of Design
>
> (My response) Holly, thanks for the input and please do share the
> case studies.
>
>
>
>
>
> /
> /
> **
> **
> **Jeremiah D. Crossett*| Senior Analyst | Phase Change Energy Solutions*
> *
> *120 E. Pritchard St. | Asheboro, NC 27203 | Mobile 503-688-8951*
> **www.phasechange.com <http://www.phasechange.com> **
> *
> **
> **
> **
> **
>
>
>
> On Thu, Jun 27, 2013 at 2:11 PM, Diego Ibarra <diegobeps at gmail.com
> <mailto:diegobeps at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> Hi Jeremiah,
>
> Would you mind sharing the resources people have shared with you,
> namely:
> Tianzhen, thanks for the link.
> Zheng, thanks for the recommended reading.
> Matt, thanks for the link.
>
> Thanks.
>
> Diego
> Doctoral Candidate
> Harvard University
>
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, Jun 27, 2013 at 12:28 PM, Jeremiah Crossett
> <jcrossett at phasechange.com <mailto:jcrossett at phasechange.com>> wrote:
>
> Everyone,
> Thanks for the responses.
>
> Tianzhen, thanks for the link.
> Zheng, thanks for the recommended reading.
> Matt, thanks for the link.
> Holly, thanks for the information and yes, please do send your
> case studies.
>
>
> Cheers!
>
>
>
>
> /
> /
> **
> **
> **Jeremiah D. Crossett*| Senior Analyst | Phase Change
> Energy Solutions*
> *
> *120 E. Pritchard St. | Asheboro, NC 27203 | Mobile
> 503-688-8951 <tel:503-688-8951>*
> **www.phasechange.com <http://www.phasechange.com> **
> *
> **
> **
> **
> **
>
>
>
> On Tue, Jun 25, 2013 at 6:01 PM, Samuelson, Holly Wasilowski
> <hsamuelson at gsd.harvard.edu
> <mailto:hsamuelson at gsd.harvard.edu>> wrote:
>
> Dear Jeremiah,
> I recently completed my dissertation on reusing today's
> design-phase (compliance) energy models post-design,
> focusing on a building owner's perspective. For #2, "How
> does a proposed building typically stack up against the
> utility bills?", I'd say it partially depends on the
> original purpose of the model. Was the modeler trying to
> predict utility bills, or rather demonstrate compliance
> with a code/standard? For example, for LEED-compliance
> models under older LEED (ASHRAE 90.1) protocol, modelers
> made default assumptions regarding plug-loads. This could
> lead to very inaccurate models, especially for
> energy-intensive programs such as labs or data centers. I
> have some case studies, but they're essentially specific
> to these older versions of LEED. I'm not sure if that's
> helpful to you.
>
> For #3, "How accurate should an existing building model be
> to be considered useful?", I'd say it depends on what
> you're trying to do with the model. Test future retrofits?
> Benchmark the building? Detect subtle equipment faults? I
> have a couple case studies that involved such major
> building faults that even relatively poorly-calibrated
> models (per ASHRAE 14 definitions) helped detect the
> problems. Again, I'm not sure if that's relevant to you.
>
> I'm happy to share my findings if they're relevant.
> Please contact me if this sounds like it might be helpful.
> Best,
> Holly
> Holly W. Samuelson
> Doctor of Design | Registered Architect | LEED AP BD+C
> Lecturer Harvard Graduate School of Design
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> *From:* Jeremiah Crossett [jcrossett at phasechange.com
> <mailto:jcrossett at phasechange.com>]
> *Sent:* Monday, June 17, 2013 10:08 PM
>
> *To:* bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org
> <mailto:bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org>; Terry Puccini
> *Subject:* [Bldg-sim] Recommended reading on comparison of
> models to actual?
>
> Dear bldg sim,
>
> I am looking for papers that elaborate on the concept of
> modeling, and how it correlates to actual utility data to
> share with people within my company.
>
> The questions keeps popping up, eg..
>
> 1. How does a baseline building compare to an average
> building?
> 2. How does a proposed building typically stack up
> against the utility bills once the building is built?
> 3. How accurate an existing building model should be to
> be considered useful, and how accurate
> is typically possible?
> 4. For an experimental setup what would be considered to
> be close enough to be considered a "validated" model?
>
> My understanding is that modeling is to show relationships
> between average a baseline of a chosen vintage and that of
> a proposed design in terms of relative percentages. For
> existing buildings I think that useful is within 20%
> and typically possible is 10%. Then for a validation
> model, the most important factor is similar curves and
> close totals.
>
> If anyone has any recommended papers, or personal
> experience it would be appreciated.
>
> Kind regards
>
>
>
>
> **
> **
> **Jeremiah D. Crossett*| Senior Analyst | Phase Change
> Energy Solutions*
> *
> *120 E. Pritchard St. | Asheboro, NC 27203 | Mobile
> 503-688-8951 <tel:503-688-8951>*
> **www.phasechange.com <http://www.phasechange.com> **
> *
> **
> **
> **
> **
>
>
>
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--
John R Ross III PE
Westwind Corporation
Vienna, VA 22182-1958
contact.wwind at cox.net
703-255-4712 Office
571-830-4596 Cell
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